Analysis: GOP hopes for a slim majority

AP via Yahoo ^ | November 5, 2006 | DAVID ESPO

[ARealMothersSonForever]

Twelve years in the majority, House Republicans are staggering into the final hours of the election campaign like a spent force, with a less than lofty goal of losing seats but clinging to power.

Political scandal already has claimed some of those who swept to power a dozen years ago — Tom DeLay, Bob Ney and Mark Foley among them — and tarnished the rest.

The insatiable demand for federal pork has become increasingly hard to reconcile with the insistent calls for fiscal restraint, circa 1994.

And when President Bush pulled the plug recently on "stay the course" in Iraq, it left dozens of rank-and-file Republicans on their own, months after they had saluted smartly and voted against Democratic calls for a change in war policy.

"There is some dissatisfaction in all three parts of the Republican coalition, whether it is the social conservatives who may be offended by the Foley matter and how it was handled, or the fiscal conservatives who are off the wall because of spending and the increase in government spending. And you have the national security conservatives who want a plan to win the war," sums up Joe Gaylord, a longtime GOP strategist.

His assessment is not all that different from those of other GOP campaign professionals, but his perspective is unique.

A dozen years ago, Gaylord was strategist in chief for Newt Gingrich and the conservative revolutionaries who swept to power on a clarion call for change.

Soon it will be the Democrats' turn, judging by the public and private polls and the pessimistic estimates of the GOP political universe. At least 50 Republican seats are in jeopardy in Tuesday's elections, many more than usual in an era of incumbent-friendly redistricting. Several are in districts long out of the Democrats' reach, in places such as Kansas and Nebraska, and explain why Bush is spending the final days of the campaign jetting from one Republican-leaning state to another.

"The fact that we're still trying to rally our base just days before the election and we're in a defensive mode rather than an offensive mode is problematic," said Tony Fabrizio, a Republican consultant.

"My risk is too many Republicans won't come out and vote. ... The Republicans are a bit disillusioned," Rep. Chris Chocola (news, bio, voting record) of Indiana said after a campaign stop earlier this month, referring to the constituents who have twice elected him to Congress.

It is not only the national clamor for change that is helping Democrats.

They have made a point of recruiting candidates for GOP-leaning districts who reject the liberal dogma on issues such as abortion and gun control — then raised millions from liberal donors to fuel their campaigns.

The first vote any lawmaker casts in a new Congress is for House speaker. The Democratic candidate will be Rep. Nancy Pelosi (news, bio, voting record) of California. A liberal and an early and persistent critic of the war, she has raised about $57 million in the past 22 months for Democrats and traveled widely to promote her party's candidates.

Yet candidates such as Heath Shuler of North Carolina, Joe Donnelly and Brad Ellsworth of Indiana and Mike Weaver in Kentucky say they have not decided whether they will support her, determined to keep their races separate from hers.

"Mike has made it clear he would not vote for anyone he doesn't know. He doesn't know anyone right now and he doesn't know Nancy Pelosi," Robert Kellar, Weaver's campaign manager, said recently.

"I don't even want to speculate," said Donnelly.

At the same time, if gratitude counts, Pelosi will get their support if she needs it. The Democratic campaign committee has spent more than $170,000 to help Shuler's race against Rep. Charles Taylor (news, bio, voting record); $250,000 for Weaver; $1 million aiding Donnelly's race against Rep. Chris Chocola; and about $2 million to ease Ellsworth's way past Rep. John Hostettler (news, bio, voting record).

Republicans have tried to turn Pelosi into an issue in select races. The party ran an ad in one Indiana race that said she and "other Democrats want to raise your taxes, cut and run in Iraq and give amnesty to illegal immigrants."

Hostettler was less subtle by far.

A vote for Ellsworth, one of his ad says, would be a vote for Pelosi as House speaker.

"Pelosi will then put in motion her radical plan to advance the homosexual agenda," the narrator says.

It is the kind of appeal that might have worked in another year and another environment. Hostettler is famous among Republican strategists for his ability to win new terms on the strength of support from his culturally conservative constituents.

But Ellsworth has campaigned on his credentials as sheriff of Vanderburgh County, and appears on his Web site carrying a hunting rifle. He calls his campaign bus the "Change Express." He says this about immigration: "We need to tighten our borders, enforce the laws we have and punish employers who break them."

This time, the polls show him with a double-digit lead, whether or not he votes to make Pelosi speaker.

___

EDITOR's NOTE — David Espo is the Associated Press' chief congressional correspondent.

[ARealMothersSonForever]

Ruh-Roh. Jon Carry might have to be disciplined. AP is trying to get out in front of the "bad news". The link ends with /gloomy_gop_1.

Keep smiling and dialing!

[Clintonfatigued]

There is some good news. Democrats appear to be losing ground again. Their lead has slipped, and Republican candidates are pulling even in key races.

Still, I will be glad when this election is over.

[woodb01]

Justice Stevens is likely retiring before the end of the year.  GET THE VOTERS TO THE POLLS!

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1732428/posts

ONLY YOU CAN ENSURE THAT THE TERRORISTS DO NOT CLAIM VICTORY WITH A DEMOCRAT CONTROLLED CONGRESS!! 

CLICK THE IMAGE ABOVE, OR CLICK HERE AND SPEND 15 TO 30 MINUTES MAKING A FEW PHONE CALLS!  THAT'S ALL IT TAKES AND YOU CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE! 

STOP THE ISLAMIC TERRORISTS FROM CLAIMING VICTORY, AND STOP THE JUDICIAL TERRORISTS FROM CLAIMING VICTORY!!  THE FUTURE OF OUR NATION IS AT STAKE!

If YOU have your own site, or your own blog, BY ALL MEANS, POST THIS CALL TO ACTION!

For more info, visit http://www.nodnc.com

[johnny7]

BLUE WAVE... BLUE WAVE... BLUE WAVE... BLUE WAVE... BLUE WAVE... BLUE WAVE...

[Cementjungle]

Analysis: GOP hopes for a slim huge majority

[GeorgefromGeorgia]

AP continues to try to throw chum into the water. They are cheering like a high school cheerleader for their team (the Demos). One one hand they excoriate Bush for not changing his Iraq policy, now they say he is changing, but they still make fun of him. In fact, his policy has been to win, and only withdraw when Iraq is ready on their own.

[LS]

If they are now talking "slim majority," it will be a more sizeable majority. (I.e., we will gain a seat in the Senate and are close to gaining a seat in the House).

[KoRn]

""My risk is too many Republicans won't come out and vote. ... The Republicans are a bit disillusioned," Rep. Chris Chocola (news, bio, voting record) of Indiana said after a campaign stop earlier this month, referring to the constituents who have twice elected him to Congress. It is not only the national clamor for change that is helping Democrats. They have made a point of recruiting candidates for GOP-leaning districts who reject the liberal dogma on issues such as abortion and gun control — then raised millions from liberal donors to fuel their campaigns. "

This about sums it up. The dems are running lots of 'conservative' democrats in this election, but they will align themselves with Pelosi and other when they get to DC. This is why I always vote against my dem congressman eventhough he is a 'conservative' dem, he goes to DC and imposes wealth redistribution on us all and aligns with Pelosi.

[ARealMothersSonForever]

Ahem......

[saganite]

They're already starting to characterize hanging on to power as staggering home (read moral defeat) with a slim majority.The spin is in.

[traderrob6]

This from TKS/NRO:

One more generic moves, one more we're still waiting on
11/05 03:49 PM
Hotline:
Pew is out with their final pre-election poll and just like the ABC/Wash. Post poll, Pew shows Republicans with momentum. In the generic ballot, Dems lead by just 4 points. More importantly, the GOP has made significant cuts into the Dems once gigantic lead among indies.

(The last Pew poll put the Democrats' generic ballot advantage at 11 points.)

They also report that 60 percent of voters heard "a lot" about Kerry's remarks, 24 percent "a little." That leaves Gallup's generic coming out tonight.

[WOSG]

Ooooh, the pre-election rowback to save their sorry a***es from looking like fools...

4pt generic lead is similar to previous years, meaning the impact on races may be similar.

Didnt they predict a hurricane this year that never happened?

[Unam Sanctam]

I see the appearance of this article in AP as a good sign -- the media may be trying to hedge their bets in case the much trumpeted Democratic landslide fails to appear...

[tobyhill]

They have been over-sampling Rats for months now and in order to keep some sort of credibility they will have to be honest now with the numbers.

[WildWeasel]

I see a very demoralized democrat party when they don't gain a majority in either house of Congress.

Pelosi , Reid and Dean will all be ousted from leadership and guess who is the new "leader"???

You got it, Hillary.

[Hydroshock]

I hope you are right.

[big'ol_freeper]

"Rove, that magnificent bastard, is letting them think they are going to win before lowering the hammer on Tuesday. God I love it so."

[ARealMothersSonForever]

the media may be trying to hedge their bets in case the much trumpeted Democratic landslide fails to appear

Are you kidding? Conservative Democrats and Independents saw this for exactly what it is. Please sign up and make 20 phone calls to the states and districts that count. Stick to the script, smile while you are talking (they can hear a smile over the phone), and thank everyone that you talk to. Even when they hang up or are rude. Seriously, this is making the difference.

[Defiant]

Amazing. The stories are already starting about how when the GOP holds the House, it will be a victory for the Dems. Meanwhile, the Dems will be jumping out of tall structures, or throwing Howard Dean out of one.

You know, if a GOP President wins with a 2 percent margin, 4 years after a GOP President wins with a 4 percent margin, they don't say that it shows that the Democrats won the election. That's how to look at the House and Senate. The GOP will win the Congress, but not by as much as the last time. It will be a far, far better result than any prior 6th year of a second term President. And the MSM will say the Dems won a moral victory that will propel them to 2008. What a hoot!

[MichiganConservative]

I'd like to see the Dims win "moral victories" every year. They can have that "moral high ground".