Democrats, on the Offensive, Could Gain Both Houses

Washigton Post ^ | Sunday, November 5, 2006; Page A01 | Dan Balz and David S. Broder

[ClarenceThomasfan]

And if this Saddam verdict comes in guilty, that could accelerate the momemtum for the GOP. With Kerry's botched joke, the great unemployment numbers and a Saddam verdict, we will have the wind at our back going into the election.

[1035rep]

Check this out.

[WOSG]

Actually the poll history shows that there was a bump/dip in early October, post Foleygate, that drove down GOP identification.

It seems that *all* polling numbers got worse for GOP - for a while ... and he media took that to be general dissatisfaction ... but they are coming home.

Bush's RV approvals are now not much difference from August 2005, ie, pre-Katrina and a lot more.
Support for war in Iraq, similarly, has steadied out, as has the 'who is better, DEM or GOP, to lead?' ...

DeWine was done double digits in polls a few weeks back and is now a lot closer... every other poll is "close" in the Senate races the dems want to pick up.

[WOSG]

Good point, I saw that too (no DEM advantage on Iraq) and noticed that it is not much different from in previous years, but that in early october the GOP support cratered.

So we are returning to more 'normal' polling data ... it indicates no great sea change in opinion of people versus 2004 or earlier.

Generic
2006 results better than in 1998 (which werent great, but we held the House and Senate) ...
"11/1/98 RV 51 43 "

[Intolerant in NJ]

Bush's approval rating stands at 40 percent among all Americans and 43 percent among registered voters...they keep making this same idiotic statement - half those who disapprove are conservatives who don't like Bush's overspending and waffling on illegal immigration - when they go to the polls, they are sure not going to vote for 'rats who will make the problem worse......

[REDWOOD99]

Writers v. Pollsters.

[SmoothTalker]

I don't think they have much of a shot in the Senate. The House is what it comes down to and to be honest at this point I think it is too close to predict. We are in an absolute dogfight to keep Pelosi out in the House. Its all down to GOTV at this point. I know a lot of us are working our tails off in this last few days. A better groundgame won us the 2000 and 2004 elections. Lets hope it carries us again.

[aligncare]

...Democrats have led in that "generic ballot" poll in every survey taken in recent memory.

Funny how that works. Media gives over 75 percent favorable coverage to the democrats. Journalists vote over 80 percent for the democrats. Polls show democrats leading in important election...Goebbels would be impressed.

[Goldie Lurks]

"The survey gives the Democrats a six-percentage-point lead nationally.." Surveys/polls can be skewed depending upon who/what/where/when/how they were conducted. A poll conducted by any in the biased, news media is most likely skewed.

[investigateworld]

My predictions:

R's keep both Houses, Jon Carry to be flogged by the DBM. Stories leak out that it was the gays that sat out this election as the Demos threw them under the bus during the Foley shindig.

(If I'm wrong I will say nice things about Walmart for ten days straight!)

[aligncare]

Just got finished saying that myself. I'm beginning to sense a...theme here.

[WOSG]

3) "San Francisco Values" is working."

Don't be a Nancy Boy, Vote Republican!

[nopardons]

ROTFLOL

Great post and I won't force you to say nice things about Wal-Mart...a store I have never been in and know almost nothing about. :-)

[CheyennePress]

"1. Do you disapprove/approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you disapprove/approve strongly or somewhat?

"Feel" the difference? It's slight, but the first question was negative in nature. The second was positive in nature."

Very true. There most certainly is a difference. My guess is that the" somewhats" are the big shifts you'll see if you reversed the wording.

[Rokke]

"Actually the poll history shows that there was a bump/dip in early October, post Foleygate, that drove down GOP identification."

I'm not buying that. I honestly don't believe any significant number of Republicans would temporarily change their party identification based on Foleygate or any other gate. It just didn't impact the average American that much (if at all).

[ken5050]

Vote Republican..retire Charlie Rangel