Posted on 11/04/2006 8:50:10 PM PST by marginoferror
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows some narrowing in the Democratic advantage in House races. The survey gives the Democrats a six-percentage-point lead nationally among likely voters asked which party they prefer for Congress. It was 14 points two weeks ago, but this remains a larger advantage than they have had in recent midterm elections......Bush's approval rating stands at 40 percent among all Americans and 43 percent among registered voters, a small but statistically insignificant increase in the past two weeks. About twice as many strongly disapprove of him as strongly approve.
Independents favor Democrats by an 18-point margin, but that is less than the 28-point advantage Democrats enjoyed two weeks ago.
The poll also showed that the Republican strategy of trying to make Democrats an unacceptable alternative may be working, at least at the margins.
Two weeks ago, 55 percent said Democratic members of Congress deserved reelection. In the new poll, that shrank to 48 percent. But Republicans remain stuck in the high thirties on the same question.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
And if this Saddam verdict comes in guilty, that could accelerate the momemtum for the GOP. With Kerry's botched joke, the great unemployment numbers and a Saddam verdict, we will have the wind at our back going into the election.
Check this out.
Actually the poll history shows that there was a bump/dip in early October, post Foleygate, that drove down GOP identification.
It seems that *all* polling numbers got worse for GOP - for a while ... and he media took that to be general dissatisfaction ... but they are coming home.
Bush's RV approvals are now not much difference from August 2005, ie, pre-Katrina and a lot more.
Support for war in Iraq, similarly, has steadied out, as has the 'who is better, DEM or GOP, to lead?' ...
DeWine was done double digits in polls a few weeks back and is now a lot closer... every other poll is "close" in the Senate races the dems want to pick up.
Good point, I saw that too (no DEM advantage on Iraq) and noticed that it is not much different from in previous years, but that in early october the GOP support cratered.
So we are returning to more 'normal' polling data ... it indicates no great sea change in opinion of people versus 2004 or earlier.
Generic
2006 results better than in 1998 (which werent great, but we held the House and Senate) ...
"11/1/98 RV 51 43 "
Writers v. Pollsters.
I don't think they have much of a shot in the Senate. The House is what it comes down to and to be honest at this point I think it is too close to predict. We are in an absolute dogfight to keep Pelosi out in the House. Its all down to GOTV at this point. I know a lot of us are working our tails off in this last few days. A better groundgame won us the 2000 and 2004 elections. Lets hope it carries us again.
Funny how that works. Media gives over 75 percent favorable coverage to the democrats. Journalists vote over 80 percent for the democrats. Polls show democrats leading in important election...Goebbels would be impressed.
"The survey gives the Democrats a six-percentage-point lead nationally.." Surveys/polls can be skewed depending upon who/what/where/when/how they were conducted. A poll conducted by any in the biased, news media is most likely skewed.
Just got finished saying that myself. I'm beginning to sense a...theme here.
3) "San Francisco Values" is working."
Don't be a Nancy Boy, Vote Republican!
Great post and I won't force you to say nice things about Wal-Mart...a store I have never been in and know almost nothing about. :-)
I'm not buying that. I honestly don't believe any significant number of Republicans would temporarily change their party identification based on Foleygate or any other gate. It just didn't impact the average American that much (if at all).
Vote Republican..retire Charlie Rangel
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