Posted on 11/04/2006 8:50:10 PM PST by marginoferror
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows some narrowing in the Democratic advantage in House races. The survey gives the Democrats a six-percentage-point lead nationally among likely voters asked which party they prefer for Congress. It was 14 points two weeks ago, but this remains a larger advantage than they have had in recent midterm elections......Bush's approval rating stands at 40 percent among all Americans and 43 percent among registered voters, a small but statistically insignificant increase in the past two weeks. About twice as many strongly disapprove of him as strongly approve.
Independents favor Democrats by an 18-point margin, but that is less than the 28-point advantage Democrats enjoyed two weeks ago.
The poll also showed that the Republican strategy of trying to make Democrats an unacceptable alternative may be working, at least at the margins.
Two weeks ago, 55 percent said Democratic members of Congress deserved reelection. In the new poll, that shrank to 48 percent. But Republicans remain stuck in the high thirties on the same question.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
I'm almost afraid to read the actual poll. If the stuff in the article was CHERRY PICKED to favor Dems, imagine what gruesome horrors are in the internals.
THE ONLY "POLL" THAT MATTERS, RIGHT NOW, IS THE RESULT OF THE ELECTION, TUEDAY NIGHT!
LOL...Won't happen!
More polls will reflect this move as pollsters try to salvage their credibility before the "real poll" on Tues.
Based primarily on my gut feelings, if the Dems do make sustantial gains, it will be on the strength of vote fraud.
There appear to be a lot of close ones, and the Dems have a pretty good record for pulling those out via fraud.
I don't mean to sound negative, but my point is that if we could stop most of the vote fraud, it would really hurt the Dems.
REGISTERED VOTERS ??? There are only a couple numbers in that poll that are likely voters. The bulk of results are registered voters (RV). Why would it be that this close to the election, when it's EASY to identify likely voters - would you not release those numbers ????
Exactly so.
i just checked that web site and i can't believe the poll was 1205 ADULTS not even registered nor likely voters
quote:
This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone November 1-4, 2006, among a random national sample of 1,205 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
BTTT
There are about 30 members of my family that haven't voted yet and they are all Republicans. All will be there on Tuesday.
Spot on!
GOP holds both House and Senate. If Iraq is the BIGGEST issue, and the result of responses to this following Iraq question is right, then I don't see any Dem advantage. BTW, this is the split from Registered Voter response, which is supposed to favor the Dems......
12. Which political party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job handling the situation in Iraq?
Both Neither No
Democrats Republicans (vol.) (vol.) op.
11/4/06 RV 42 42 1 11 3
10/22/06 RV 48 40 1 8 3
10/8/06 51 38 3 7 2
People are waking up to the morally and intellectually bankrupt horror that is Pelosi's Party.
This was rather interesing...
901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as:
Democrat Republican Independent Other No op.
11/4/06 LV 33 34 30 2 1
11/4/06 RV 35 32 30 2 1
11/4/06 All 33 30 32 3 2
10/22/06 30 28 36 4 2
10/8/06 38 27 31 3 1
9/7/06 33 32 30 3 2
8/6/06 34 27 34 4 1
6/25/06 33 28 35 3 *
5/15/06 34 28 33 4 1
5/11/06 33 30 33 3 1
4/9/06 34 29 34 3 0
3/5/06 32 28 36 3 1
1/26/06 32 27 34 6 *
1/8/06 31 30 34 5 1
12/18/05 33 32 33 2 *
11/2/05 31 27 38 3 1
9/11/05 31 27 34 8 1
9/2/05 32 31 31 5 2
8/28/05 32 29 33 5 1
6/26/05 34 28 32 5 1
6/5/05 30 31 34 4 *
4/24/05 35 28 32 5 *
Look at the 10/8/06 poll...38% dems, 27% us, 31% indy... Plus another question asked if you considered yourself liberal, moderate or conservative. Only 15-20% said they were liberal.... what's up with liberals not wanting to admit they are liberal??
So... of course, they have been more dims polled than us. Yet, when I look a the full and past results, the trends are quite clear - and it's not in sync with the headline.
I completely agree. How come WaPo omitted Bush's approval rating from "likely voters"? They published it for all persons surveyed as well as for "registered voters," the latter of which showed a 7.5% increase from the overall surveyed level (to 43%).
Hmmm, lemme extrapolate: Bush garnered an approval rating of 45-46% from "likely voters." That would explain why it wasn't mentioned in the actual article. If it were flat or lowered, you can bet it would have been put in there, with a dire remark such as "Discouraging for Republicans is that the likliest of voters view Bush's performance in office the most pessimistically of all. . ."
that is correct but then they factored later for LV + RV (likely voter, registered voter) - but they cherry picked the data! it's mostly registered voters below - there's no explanation for why they'd do that ... except they didn't like the numbers and didn't want to print them.
More like 50% among likely voters.
The data are very interesting considering that their random sample ended up with 33 Dims, 34 GOP and 30 Ind. That is quite different than what other pollsters have come up with.
The way I understand it is that a pollster draws a random sample gettng demographics that match the population of the country. But there is no demographic of party. So it is interesting that as we have approached this election a higher percentage of people are willing to call themselves Republicans.
This is a very encouraging poll to me. If it is right, there may be some seriously funny TV on Tuesday night.
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