A quick thought on Arizona 8th District and illegal immigration (Graf is dark horse)

National Review Online ^ | 3 Nov 2006 | Jim Geraghty

[axes_of_weezles]

A quick thought on Arizona 8th District and illegal immigration 11/03 01:43 PM The Corner has a good collection of links to news stories covering the House race in the Arizona 8th District — Democrat Gabrielle Giffords vs. Republican Randy Graf. It's Kolbe's old seat, one of the races every observer is chalking up as an automatic Democratic pickup.

I've indicated that Republican Randy Graf is my Super Mega-Shocker Special What-The-Hell-Are-You-Smoking-Jim Upset Pick for 2006; I just figure the illegal immigration issue is huge, stirs passions, motivates voters, and that a lot of people may support a Minuteman, a hardline view, but don't want to tell it to a pollster or others for fear of being called racist, nativist, etc.

And as a candidate the state GOP wasn't eager to see to win the primary, Graf was seen as unelectable and expected to get blown out by 20-30 points. So the fact that he's not getting blown out, and is in fact down 12, 10, 8 suggested to me that maybe there's something going on out there.

On the other hand, if Graf does get blown out as expected, staunch opponents of illegal immigration are going to have a challenge persuading the GOP that their position is an electoral winner. It's easy to see the mentality taking root, "If opposing immigration couldn't help stave off a blowout in Tucson, Arizona, it's not going to help much anywhere else..."

[Regulator]

First they got involved in the primary when they should have butted out

Thanks for reminding me. I'd forgotten that outrage.

Now I'm even angrier!

As far as I'm concerned, Randy Graf was a political execution by the Bush crowd, nothing more. If they prefer the company of like minded Democrats to people from their own party, then whatever travesty goes down tomorrow is on them.