I am going to say until I am blue in the fingers:
The tactical situation in Iraq will be resolved when the strategic situation in Iran is resolved.
Al Qaida in Iraq has been dealt a severe blow. They are not the issue.
The will be the issue if the Sunnis are left to the mercy of Shia extremism.
"Al Qaida in Iraq has been dealt a severe blow. They are not the issue."
No, al-Qaeda in Iraq is still extremely strong and controls most of Ramadi and many Anbar towns.
But, Khilizad was in Anbar two days ago and was helping to set up the groundwork for an all out Fallujah style operation on Ramadi after the election.
Even then we need many more troops in Western Iraq to solidify any such gains made by going on the offensive after the election.
If this is the start of a civil war and I emphasise the word IF....I am concerned about our future posture. I have never heard of a third party to a civil war that did not pick a side. What side should we pick? We can't side with the shia as they already have a sponsor and it is our enemy. The only other option would be to support the sunni and hope to put Iraq back the way it was. Or a third way would be to support breaking Iraq in three. I don't pretend to be smart enough to know the best option but I do know we have to avoid a civil war at all costs.
Agree fully, as long as Iran and Syria are allowed to continue to interfere, stability and victory are impossible.
Like the USSR and PRC in Vietnam, but on a smaller scale, it's near impossible to defeat an enemy when they receive unimpeded logistical, manpower and material support from outside forcs on their borders.
The administration's failure to confront Iran and Syria over their interference in Iraq has been one of their great failures, and a near unforgivable sign of weakness.
If you compare to Germany and Japan in WW2, Japan was an Island with no outside powers supporting any resistance after the war and Germany also had no outside powers on its borders, it was surrounded 100% by Allied/Soviet forces and the Swiss, who weren't involved.
Trying to fight a war and run an occupation is very difficult if you allow your enemies access to unimpeded and uninterrupted limitless outside support.