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Great thread. Excellent analysis. I'm just marking it for future reference. No real comment to add other than to agree with the assessment that it's "technological bias" affecting the polls. Cell phone usage has been discussed, but it's also important to realize that as the years roll on, it's become more and more common practice to screen your land-line calls via the answering machine or caller ID box.

My thesis is that GOPers, being the savvy, humble folk we are, are much less likely to respond to a pollster than independents or democrats (sinch the polls are continually biased against us). The former will go through with it because they're inherently wishy-washy, the latter because they're obnoxiously egotistic and obviously being asked poll questions feeds into that mentality. It'd be interesting to conduct an informal poll here on FR to see what the telephone-answering-especially-relative-to-pollsters habits of contemporary GOPers are.