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His anaylsis sounds about right to me. I'd love his long shot Congressional pick of course. The bottomline for me is that I firmly believe partisanship has become deeply entrenched. This prohibits massive 20-50 House shifts UNLESS one side stays home. I can't speak for the Dem base, but the GOP's conservative base is not staying home. They thought about it, some like myself had resigned ourselves to do so. But for one issue or another it was made clear that choice needed to be re-evaluated. The clearest sign this has occured is when libertarians such as Bortz and those on the outside edges like Savage suddenly reverse their positions and join returning conservatives.

In 2004 my prediction was that the Presidential race would be close right to the end, then at the end break decisively. It would not be a Reagan near sweep, nor would it be 2000. My gut feeling was that the victor of that late break would be G.W.B.

In this election Geraghty is essentially making the same prediction I did for the Presidential race, only toward Congressional candidates. And I buy that analysis. The GOP base was mostly still registered properly, on file from the 2004 race. We had the luxury to wait to make up our minds how we were going to deal with this Congress. The decision has been made and it won't please the Dems nor punditry.

As for Santorum I think his race is dependent on two factors. Overestimated Dem turnout, and GOP turnout. If the GOP base turns out at near '04 rates and the Dem base turns out at mid-term rate, he has a shot. I'm just not certain how motivated the Dem base in Penn is right now, and Kos isn't a good indicator of anyone other than the rabid left of the Dem party. As Lamont indicates.

Need an indicator? What was the Dem primary turnout this year?

Geraghty was right on the money in 2004. His "Obe wan Kenobi" was brilliant in his analysis of the Bush race.