First, the Republicans are entrenched and incumbents are hard to unseat. All politics is local and all that. Second, in my own Congressional district (east Broward County, Florida), I know the Republican incumbent will keep his seat and yet lots of pundits say the Democrat will win.
Mother, a dyed-the-wool liberal, will vote for Republican E. Clay Shaw because he once got her a replacement Social Security card. She was having problems with the bureaucracy and Shaw's staff got it for her. Shaw's been in office 26 years and runs a Fed Govt. Problem Resolution operation out his local office. Lots of people got stuff unsnarled because of his staff ... along with a form letter signed by "Clay" making sure everything was okay.
Even my sister, who's so far to the left she once wanted to wear a T-shirt emblazoned "I had an abortion" can't bring herself to vote E. Clay Shaw out of office.
As Mother goes, so goes the nation.
LOL. I wish your mom would vote for Katherine Harris!
I hope you're right about Clay Shaw. A couple of days ago a Palm Beach County GOP insider (the FL-22 takes in almost all of the Palm Beach County coast) told me he was worried about Shaw's seat. We need to have a big GOP turnout on Tuesday.