Too much beltway-cocktail-party time. Just like Laura Ingraham, it would seem.
Obi wan, his mentor, says this may well be a "late breaking election," as I hinted above. In that scenario, Senate numbers will lead the house, because the House districts are just too hard to poll. The movement in the Senate is very good. Daily Kos is WORRIED about Montana---they know it's a goner. They still think, he says, that PA, RI, and OH are in the bag. But that's the Dems' take. Anyway, back to Geraghty and Obi Wan/Geraghty:
"Senate races will lead the House races as indicators. And it's kind of hard to see the Republicans doing well in the Senate races and getting blown out in the House. Because I respectfully doubt this last-minute shift is based on personalities and not policies."
So, as I see this, the senate already began to shift with the Corker/Talent/Burns/Allen movements earlier this week. The house should follow, then, by Mon. we should see the 2nd tier senators moving into line. Will that be enough, far enough, for people like DeWine, Santorum, and Chafee? Dunno, but the fact is if these other indicators are correct, we will only lose one if all three drop---but still might see pickups in MI or WA.
Oh, and axes of weezles, Geraghty says Graf is his ultra-super longshot pick.