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Excellent observations. I mean, look at the Corker (R-TN) futures for the Senate. He's ~70.0 now, largely on the back of the public polls having him ahead by 8-10 points. However, NRO Corner reported today that GOP internals have Corker up by only 1-2 points and are mystified by the disparity with the public polls. If the GOP internals are correct, Corker should be trading in the range of only ~55.0-60.0.

Exactly. I've heard over an over again the silly logic that since people are betting "real money" you can be sure their bets are reliable. A simple look at the stock market reveals the flaw in that logic. Hundreds of thousands of people bet real money everyday on thousands of stocks that they believe are true winners. Yet, very few people consistently make the "right" decision. In fact, every share someone bought on the market is being sold by someone who no longer believes the stock is a winner. And all of it involves "real money".