All seafood will run out in 2050, say scientists [Run for your lives.]

The world's stocks of seafood will have collapsed by 2050 at present rates of destruction by fishing, scientists said yesterday.

A four-year study of 7,800 marine species around the world's ecosystems has concluded that the long-term trend is clear and predictable.

By 2048, to be exact, catches of all the presently fished seafoods will have declined on average by more than 90 per cent since 1950.

The study, by an international group of ecologists and economists, says the loss of biodiversity impairs the ability of oceans to feed the world's growing human population — expected to rise by 50 per cent to nine billion in 2050.

Over-fishing also sabotages the stability of marine environments, profoundly reducing the ocean's ability to produce seafood, resist diseases, filter pollutants and rebound from stresses such as climate change.

Every species matters when it comes to the ocean's ability to repair itself, says the study, published in this week's Science magazine.

Dr Boris Worm, of Dalhousie University, Nova Scotia, the lead author, said: "This is what is projected, not predicted, to happen. I am confident we will not go there because we will do something about it. But if this trend continues in this predictable fashion, as it has for the last 50 years, the world's currently fished seafoods will have reached what we define as collapse by 2048.

"Every year a higher percentage of the currently fished stocks has collapsed. We are losing it piece by piece."

Prof Callum Roberts, of the University of York, who was not involved in the study, said: "The animals and plants that inhabit the sea are not merely embellishments to be wondered at. They are essential to the health of the oceans and well-being of human society."

The scientists found that in 12 regions, which include the Wadden Sea, the shallow part of the North Sea, 38 per cent of exploited marine species of all kinds, including birds, had collapsed in the past 1,000 years while seven per cent was extinct. Some 29 per cent had collapsed since 1950.

Dr Worm said the decline of cod on the Scotian shelf, off Canada, had led to changes throughout the ecosystem. But there was some good news in the paper.

Dr Worm said there was evidence that wherever protective measures were taken, species recovered rapidly and could cope better with problems such as global warming.

The catch per unit of effort — the standard scientific way of measuring fishing activity — goes up four-fold.

As wild fish stocks decline, farmed fish is expected to take over. Some 43 per cent of fish consumed is already farmed, says the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation.

But it warned that fish farming would struggle to maintain even present levels of production because the small wild fish that are fed to farmed species are being over-fished.

Willie Mackenzie, of Greenpeace, said: "This report confirms the scale of the crisis our oceans are facing. It's clear that fish and chips will be off the menu within our lifetimes if we don't act now.

"We need to ban destructive fishing practices and create a network of large-scale marine reserves around not just Britain, but globally".

Despite the problem of the oceans being on a time-scale comparable to global warming, the Government appears to have scrapped plans to introduce its promised Marine Bill in the Queen's Speech this month, the environmental group WWF said yesterday.

Wrong Again

The continued rapid cooling of the earth since WWII is in accord with the increase in global air pollution associated with industrialization, mechanization, urbanization and exploding population. -- Reid Bryson, "Global Ecology; Readings towards a rational strategy for Man", (1971)

The battle to feed humanity is over. In the 1970s, the world will undergo famines. Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. Population control is the only answer -- Paul Ehrlich - The Population Bomb (1968)

I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000 -- Paul Ehrlich in (1969)

In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish. -- Paul Ehrlich, Earth Day (1970)

Before 1985, mankind will enter a genuine age of scarcity . . . in which the accessible supplies of many key minerals will be facing depletion -- Paul Ehrlich in (1976)

This [cooling] trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century -- Peter Gwynne, Newsweek 1976

There are ominous signs that the earth's weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production - with serious political implications for just about every nation on earth. The drop in food production could begin quite soon... The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologist are hard-pressed to keep up with it. -- Newsweek, April 28, (1975)

This cooling has already killed hundreds of thousands of people. If it continues and no strong action is taken, it will cause world famine, world chaos and world war, and this could all come about before the year 2000. -- Lowell Ponte "The Cooling", 1976

If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder by the year 2000...This is about twice what it would take to put us in an ice age. -- Kenneth E.F. Watt on air pollution and global cooling, Earth Day (1970)

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.


	If the rate of over-fishing continues, the world's currently fished seafoods will have reached what is defined as collapse by 2048