Your theory is the best so far.
A few weeks back, a FReeper whose name I unfortunately forget, posted something about being aware (from unnamed sources, of course) that there was something big about to happen in connection with a grand jury that was investigating the leaks.
I agree with Fresh Winds theory. See my post # 36 for an
elaboration of the plot. I think Rove - The Magnificant Bastard - may have pulled off the most stunning horsetrade of a lifetime.