[calcowgirl]

These polls are all over the board. 

 

 

Field Poll (PDF), November 2, 2006
Proposition	Yes	No	Undecided
Prop 85 - Parental Notification	46	43	11
Prop 86 - Cigarette Tax	45	45	10
Prop 87 - Oil Production Tax	40	44	16
Prop 90 - Eminent Domain	35	42	23
Hoover Institution Poll, October 31, 2006
Proposition	Yes	No	Undecided
Prop 85 - Parental Notification	42	51	7
Prop 86 - Cigarette Tax	49	47	4
Prop 87 - Oil Production Tax	49	44	7
Prop 88 - Parcel Tax	31	60	9
Prop 89 - Public Financing	35	52	13
Prop 90 - Eminent Domain	58	28	14
Datamar Poll (PDF), November 1, 2006
Proposition	Yes	No	Don't Know
Prop 1A - Transportation Funding	56.8	27.2	16.0
Prop 1B - Bonds - Transportation	56.9	33.5	9.5
Prop 1C - Bonds - Housing	42.4	48.2	9.5
Prop 1D - Bonds - Schools	47.2	44.1	8.7
Prop 1E - Bonds - Flood Control	61.4	29.4	9.1
Prop 83 - Jessica's Law	69.0	24.0	7.0
Prop 84 - Bonds - Environment	50.4	40.0	9.5
Prop 85 - Parental Notification	46.8	46.8	6.4
Prop 86 - Cigarette Tax	44.8	49.8	5.4
Prop 87 - Oil Production Tax	45.2	48.0	6.8
Prop 88 - Parcel Tax	28.6	62.5	8.9
Prop 89 - Public Financing	27.5	60.1	12.4
Prop 90 - Eminent Domain	46.2	41.2	12.5

 

 

[calcowgirl]

Ping - a comparison of polls, FYI.

[goldstategop]

When you correct for the liberal oversampling of all these polls, I think the tax increase measures appear headed for defeat and Proposition 90 will pass. Dan Walters says Angelides is so far to the Left, that in the recent Field Poll, only a third of the voters support him. Arnold has the same percentage he had in the 2003 recall election. He could win by 16 or more percentage points. Conventional wisdom says the Democrats will win big on Tuesday nationwide. No far there is no evidence California is leading the fabled nationwide Blue Wave heralded in the Drive By Media. It appears to be by-passing the state.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus

[dpwiener]

Unfortunately that does not look at all good for Prop 90. It seems to be sinking fast, compared to earlier surveys. Large numbers of "Undecideds" usually end up breaking "No".

More bad news is that most or all of the bond measures may end up passing. The good news is that Propositions 86 through 89 are probably all headed for defeat. Proposition 85 also seems headed for defeat, which I would prefer not be the case, but (unlike many other FR posters) I am personally much more concerned with the financial and property rights ballot measures than Prop 85.

[newzjunkey]

Good heavens! "All over the board" doesn't begin to describe that mess.

Let's set up a dart board and get a new set of numbers!