SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- November 2006 Update

self | November 1, 2006 | RobFromGa

[RobFromGa]

UPDATE 11/1 INCLUDING FREEPER INPUT

SIX DAYS AWAY FROM NOV 7, here's my updated opinions on the races. Things have moved towards the GOP in my opinion.

[Note: We have 48 GOP seats besides these 12 that are either not up for reelection or they are not close enough to be in play.]

The SENATE "CONTESTS" (Ranked most likely GOP to least)

VA- R seat- ALLEN vs. Webb (90%) Webb is toast
MO- R seat- TALENT vs. McCaskill (70%) Michael J Fox backfired
TN- R seat- Corker vs. Ford (60%) "Playboy" Ford is making stupid moves
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Keep 51 seat GOP control ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
(Note: need two of three for 50-50 Cheney majority, but this entails power-sharing in cmtes, etc)

MT- R seat- BURNS vs. Tester (55%) improving, Bush to visit next week
MD- D seat- Steele vs. Cardin (55%) improving, great ads
NJ- D seat- Kean vs. MENENDEZ (50%) steady, RINO v. crook- go with the RINO
PA- R seat- SANTORUM vs. Casey (50%) improving, Rick deserves win
^^^^^^^^^^^^ Needed to Maintain 55-45 GOP (status quo ratio) ^^^^^^^^^^^^

MI- D seat- Bouchard vs. STABENOW (50%) Bouchard surging!
RI- R seat- CHAFEE vs. Whitehouse (40%) lib v. lib- who cares?
OH- R seat- DEWINE vs. Brown (40%) I hope DeWine pulls it out, but it looks unlikely from here
WA- D seat- McGavick vs. CANTWELL (25%) hard to get traction
MN- D seat- Kennedy vs. Klobuchar* (25%) improving but way behind
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Attain 60 seat majority ^^^^^^^^^^^

SAFE GOP SEATS

AZ- (R= current seatholder)- Kyl safe
IN- R- Lugar safe
ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 8 safe + 40 carryovers = 48 minimum GOP

SAFE DEM/INDEPENDENT SEATS

CA- (D=current status)- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman(I) or Lamont(D) safe
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- Akaka safe
MA- D- Kennedy safe
NE- D- Nelson safe (sorry FL Freepers- prove me wrong!)
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WI- D- Kohl safe
WV- D- Byrd safe
VT- Ind- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders-Soc safe
DEMS: 13 safe + 27 carryovers = 40 minimum DEM

[Fledermaus]

I can't believe Allen in VA turned into a total moron candidate. I guess he never thought about actually fighting for his seat since he's had it easy for so long.

I think he'll pull it out but it's clear his idea of running for president in '08 is over. He's a buffoon.

The only person that can stop McCain (and just wait for all the McCain haters around here to rally around him when it looks like he'll get the nomination and pretend they never said anything bad about him) is Romney at this point.

[YdontUleaveLibs]

I will never ever rally around McCain. I will no longer call him a RINO because I have actually looked at his voting record. It isn't too bad. But, I don't trust McCain it is personal not because of whatever policies he might endorse.

BTW I have a feeling it is going to be + 2 in the Senate for the GOP. I don't know where they are coming from, just got a feeling there will be a slight gain in the Senate. I am hoping all the polls are wrong on the House and the GOP at least holds a majority.

[MHT]

I agree--sadly, we had great candidates in most of these states but Mark Kennedy won't win and WA will stay with the goofy woman. PA is over, so is RI. De Wine has lost it--and to think of all the times he denied the conservatives the votes they needed in order to appease Ohio's moderates and he's going to lose anyway. .

I am optimistic about Talent. He's been a good senator and doesn't deserve to get fired and replaced by a woman who won't answer questions about the taxes she doesn't pay because 195 of her husband's companies are chartered out of the country. Allen deserves to win--but the press will continue to crucify him for minutiae while they give his perv opponent a pass.

Burns is coming closer, but it's too little too late. Worth watching will be how close Kean and Steele come, but I seriously doubt if either are going to make it.

Republicans will probably hold the Senate, depending on what happens with Talent, Allen, and Ford race in TN. These should have been slam-dunks. Just goes to show you what a single-minded press can do. If they succeed this time around, can you imagine how insufferable they are going to be for the next two years?

[RobFromGa]

My individual election predictions:

Senate - R 56/ D 42/ I 2 vs 55/44/1 now

Santorum 50.2 Casey 49.8 WIN HOLD
Corker 55 Ford 45 WIN HOLD
Burns 52 Tester 48 WIN HOLD
Allen 55 Webb 45 WIN HOLD
Chaffee 46 Whitehouse 54 LOSS TURNOVER (not really)
Talent 53 McCaskill 47 WIN HOLD
Kean 50 Menendez 49 WIN PICKUP

And my extended picks:
OH: DeWine 49 Brown 50 LOSS TURNOVER
MD: Steele 52 Cardin 46 WIN PICKUP
MI: Bouchard 50.5 Stabenow 49.5 WIN PICKUP
AZ: Kyl 57 Pederson 43 WIN HOLD
MN: Kennedy 45 Klobuchar 54 LOSS HOLD
WA: McGavick 47 Cantwell 51 LOSS HOLD
NE: Ricketts 41 Nelson 57 LOSS HOLD
NV: Ensign 58 Carter 41 WIN HOLD
CT: Lieberman 48 Lamont 37 HOLD

[balch3]

you forgot the Kerry factor, which will put us over the top in most of these races.

[mcvey]

Yes, I suspect Allen's internals were what led him to release the Webb writings. They probably showed a significant dive in his backing and he went desperate.

That has backfired. The MSM has spent so long depicting the 'pubbies as the party of violence, cowboyism and chaos, that Allen's attack simply lived up to the image.

[mcvey]

Well, I hope you are right, but it is hard to see much of this happening.

Right now, I am at dems 50 (including the I's), reps 49--election comes down to Missouri.

[mak5]

I make it win in OH, lose in PA. The numbers remain the same, but it is DeWine instead of Santorum, unfortunately.

[pgkdan]

The only pol I've seen that has Webb leading is Rassmussen and his poll was a statewide poll of 500 likely voters taken on a Sunday evening. Bogus.

[mwl1]

There is one presidential candidate whom you are forgetting who could immediately become a tier I candidate vs Romney and McCain, should he regretably lose on Tuesday night. His name is Rick Santorum.

Rick may also have his choice of other jobs: UN Ambassador; Bush cabinet position; federal appellate court Third Circuit.

You want WW III?: Bush could nominate Santorum to be a justice of the United States Supreme Court.

[sergeantdave]

There's a reason why the rats had to call in the big guns this week as both Clinton and Schumer visited MI to try to lift up the chances of Stabenow retaining her senate seat.

Stabenow is in big trouble.

[LS]

WSJ has BOuchard >4 now; McGavick >4; DeWIne >2; Santorum >8; and even Kennedy close, at 7.

If you adjust for turnout and polling error, folks, my earlier estimates of picking up a Senate seat were wrong. Dead wrong.

Looks now like we'll AT LEAST get two, and possibly four or five.

[LS]

Santorum now >8 on WSJ poll, so figure, in this Dem state, he's about 5 down. That's VERY doable, esp., when I calculate that already the Dem base was depressed by 1-2%, and now, with Kerry, you're looking at a 5% swing in Dem non-turnout and GOP turnout.

Santorum wins, and the GOP is going to have stunning gains in the Senate.

[LS]

Santorum is 8 back by WSJ, but even in a Dem state, you have to adjust for poll error, so your estimate of 5 is likely ok. But the key is, he's finally moved, and moved a LOT.

[mac_truck]

Rick would make a great ambassador or judge, but he's even better as Senator!

[CPT Clay]

Casey is such an empty suit I cannot believe Penn would go for him.

S. Brown is such a flaming lib, i cannot believe Ohio would vote for him. Where are the moderates when you need them?

[mak5]

Off polling results I have seen today, I see Burns and Steele pulling out wins as well.

As far as Santorum is concerned, he is where he belongs. Having known him before he was a Senator, he is better off as a legislator than a judge or administrator. I will keep the reasons I think so to myself for now.

[Clintonfatigued]

Unfortunately, it looks like Virginia voters are blaming the messenger for the vulgar passages of Webb's novels. Webb is still ahead of Allen.

[kcbc2001]

Stabenow won her seat by less than a percentage point. She's been vulnerable since day one and she knows she has a target on her back. If the Senate seat is won, it will be by a close margin. It's not going to be a blowout victory in either the governor's race or Bouchard's. Our state went for Kerry, but it was something like 51-48. But the way the Dems talk, you'd think this was NY or CA....we aren't that liberal. If the "R"'s have a chance for pick up, then it's here because we are playing offense, not defense like the national Republicans are.

[Fledermaus]

Boy, that is a great thought. Santorum running in '08 would drive the Dems way over the cliff.