www.electoral-vote.com has the Dems winning 36 seats!
Here's a list of all Dem pick-ups:
AZ-08 CA-11 CO-04 CO-07 CT-02 CT-04 CT-05 FL-13 FL-16
FL-22 IL-06 IL-10 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 KY-04 NC-08
NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-20 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-01
OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 TX-22 VA-02 WI-08
This site claims to be non-partisan.
So in other words, every seat that's remotely close goes to them. A +36 net gain (which is actually +37 because of Vermont coming from the independents) = Dem 239, Rep 196. Not in their wildest dreams is that happening.