[WOSG]

Important to note that *no* race is decided until the polls close.

And yes, turnout efforts, if one side is better, means 5% difference, which in House terms may mean whether we hold it or lose it.

We ought not disregard the polls totally; although many media polls are very skewed (aka 'polloganda'), most of race polls are real LV samples.

LS, you would be the first to tell us that 6-12 seat loss (maybe more? I dont know the stats) is a historic norm for 6th year presidents. Add to that at least 5 seats of unusual factors that are hurting Republicans (Ney, DeLay, Foley, Sherwood, Taylor) and 11-17 seat loss might be expected.

I am hopeful we keep it at the lower end of that.

[Laverne]

I think we keep both houses. I don't see any change in the numbers in the Senate...dems would have to sweep, and they won't. I think, unfortunately, Santorum will lose, but I think we win MD, so its a wash. In so far as the house, I don't follow house races that much, but gut tells me our GOTV will carry the day. Media trying hard, real hard, to supress the GOP vote and it is backfiring on them, imho. The pollsters are playing games and will have to start revising their numbers to maintain some credibility, they samples have been heavily overweighted towards dems.

[LS]

Absolutely a loss of even 20 seats, esp. in time of an "unpopular" war and a pres. with low poll numbers would be considered nothing at all by a truly objective press; and a loss of only 4-5 seats would be considered a miracle or a statement of the president and party's great magnetism.

But don't count on hearing that story if we lose so much as ONE seat---they will portray it as Little Big Horn, Kasserine Pass, and Isandlwana all packed together.

Heck, the damage that Taft has done in OH, it's amazing that every Republican isn't swept out.