RealClearPolitics Posts Polling Data on Current Rep. House Seats -- 8 "Lean Dem," 16 "Toss Up"

RealClearPolitics.com ^ | October 28, 2006 | RCP Polling Links

[StJacques]

Battle For the House of Representatives

Republican Seats

Lean Dem (8)

Toss Up (16)

Lean GOP (21)

Note: According to RealClearPolitics.com, no Democrat seats are in play.

[StJacques]

". . . In 2002 the media was saying the dems only need 6 seats to win now its 16. You guys are buying into the same crap the media wants you to. After 9-11 the montra that all politics are local has changed. Everyone knows the media lies especially since the web. . . ."

In 2002 RealClearPolitics was the ONLY major political observer site to predict the Republican gains which did surface on election day. That is part of what makes me nervous. They do not shiv for Dems.

On the other hand, to put this in balance, they did not make their prediction of a better-than-expected Republican performance in 2002 until Sunday afternoon, about 36 hours before the election began, though they did begin to say things in the run up to the election which suggested that the conventional wisdom about Democratic gains was flawed. They are in fact saying things like that about the Senate races right now. They have moved from suggesting the Dems were on track to take six seats to saying they're now on track to take four, and they are already talking about a Republican surge in Montana as well as New Jersey and they're even discussing Maryland. So that is a similar sign to what we saw in 2004.

But all of that deals with the Senate. I have not seen much to suggest the House races are turning around. But I do not rule out that they just might.

[StJacques]

I need to post a correction to what I wrote in my post #101.

I wrote:

". . . So that is a similar sign to what we saw in 2004."

That should read:

". . . So that is a similar sign to what we saw in 2002 . . ."

Sorry about that.

[nwrep]

My prediction that the Reps will keep control of both Houses is based on the historically-backed assumption that the Reps will take at least one Dem seat in each House. And the math is, it's then all over except for the shouting.

You are correct in your historical analysis, and this conclusion that follows from it. However, there is one fact that may invalidate such comparison, and that is the extreme gerrymandering that we have today. Never before has there been such a degree of "segregated" affiliations in Congressional districts.

I am concerned that your historical extrapolation will fall apart due to this. This is doubly true since the evidence is overwhelming that Dems have shots at several Republican seats, but NO ONE has been able to show a single Dem seat that is in trouble.

Hence the wishing and hoping and dreaming that your (very thorough) historical perspective may precipitate will lead to a lot of disappointment when this theoretical one seat "back-flip" does not materialize.

[nwrep]

I'm going to go with Limbaugh and predict a 50 to 56 seat pick up.

Sorry, but that is just ridiculous.

[Welike ike]

NW rep. You cannot hold Billy Bob's jock. You are a rank amateur.

Go back to the Daily Kos Quisling.

[Welike ike]

Jaques, good point , let us look at this on Sunday Nov 5 after Saddam is sentenced to death by a Iraqi court.

[Welike ike]

Thank you CPT, a true believer. Hope to see you here on election night my friend.

[speekinout]

You forget that the Committee heads can decide what legislation gets out of the committee and to a floor vote.
That's where the real power is.

[Arizona Carolyn]

The ad Mo. Udall's granddaughter is running against him is a Michael J. Fox-type of hit job -- only this time using Lupus. Very disingenuous IMO since I have Lupus and have kept it in remission for over ten years without drugs or the need for stem cells.

[Arizona Carolyn]

It is not helped by people like Neal Boortz telling their listeners on a daily basis the GOP needs a kick in the a$$ and need to be voted out of office.

[StJacques]

Thank you for that tidbit. I completely lost track of Saddam's trial and I did not know that Nov. 5 is his sentencing date.

Maybe Iraqis will be celebrating in the streets?

[Welike ike]

Yes mate, unless DNC lawyers travel to Baghdad to intimidate the Iraqi judge for a delay.

[Welike ike]

Caroyln, who is Bortz really? Neal endorsed John Kerry in 2004 and then I stoped listening to him and hack Micheal Savage Weiner.

These 2nd tier guys are being ignored because of Rush, so they need some shock value.

[Republican Wildcat]

Weaver is not going to defeat Lewis. Lewis will probably get at least 55% or more.

[Arizona Carolyn]

The way to build a conservative base isn't to trash the GOP during a crucial election (IMO). Thank God for Rush.

[comebacknewt]

That is a fair point. It would be a bad two years in many regards, but again it might position us nicely for 2008.

I'm still hoping we win it outright and don't have to worry about it either way.

[SolomoninSouthDakota]

Again, I hope we win this cycle, but if it is just going to be 1 or 2 seats either way, then there are a few strategic advantages associated with NOT having to run things without a working majority.

That is all I am saying.

______

I understand your hope of winning. I just wanted to address this "Neil Bortzian" type of logic for letting dems back in power.
Has anyone been listening to Rush long enough to remember when he did a parody of this sort. It was one of those times he did a "fake" that was just too good, sort of like his KO(O)KS (Keep Our Kids Safe) campaign against soccer.

[speekinout]

I'm not worrying about 2008 yet. I want Conservative Judges - particularly on the Supreme Court. And I want Iraq to be a democratic country - united.
I would be very happy if Bush had enough political power to try again to fix Social Security.

No President can do much, but if Bush gets enough support in 2006 to do those things, I think he will be super successful.

[WOSG]

"I was just in USENET/GOOGLE NEWSGROUPS searching political posts 4 years ago between Oct. 28th 2002 and the 2002 election where the dems lost so big. Interesting FLASHBACK articles."

And your conclusion?

IMHO, the internet about 10 years ago was a lot friendlier to Republicans and conservatives. back then you could be an anti-Govt conservative, but now, the Bush-hating has taken both fringes and wrapped around into the middle...

JMHO.