Manhattan real estate prices aren't falling and while there has been a tiny slow down ( okay, so houses and co-ops and condos aren't selling in an hour of two, now it's taking a couple of weeks to maybe even two months ), that has just brought the time line back into normal range. And the Chicago real estate market hasn't slowed down either.
I said, when the boomers retire... do the math...
1946 + 63 == 2009 at the earliest
(not counting the small percentage that retire early)
oh, and I'm sorry, but that 20 sq miles would not be considered representative of the northeast. Manhattan and NYC would be one of the last places jobs would drain from. First hit would be the burbs and rural areas (VT, NH, ME, parts of Connecticut). Families whose children have left the nest, and are now looking to retire.
Don't worry, naysayers like you already missed the massive increase in FL real estate. Homes selling for $300k in 1995 sell for $2-3m today (beach front example). The average home price is still under $250k... but it will go up as the demand increases with the influx of the boomers. The numbers seen up north and out west are a taste of what to expect by 2012 in parts of FL (limited real estate... waterfront, golf courses, etc)