"The folks that can afford early retirement are already moving. Look for prices to increase in the south and southwest, especially states with no state income tax (texas, florida, nevada)"
There may be no income tax in Florida, but you obviously havent been following the insurance fiasco there, that alone will empty grandma and granpa's retirement savings in short order.
Thinking like this, at this point in time, is wishful thinking. Inventory is skyrocketing in most areas, houses are not selling and sitting on the market for months, the only news is that builders have slashed prices, and destroyed comps in that area for anyone who's bought in the last coupel of years. These retirees are going to find moving to warmer climates tough if they can't sell their houses, especially if they refied any equity out of their homes, or converted to a toxic loan, or upgraded to a bigger McMansion and it's worth less than what they paid.
Not mention, much of new housing is completely fails to fit the needs of retireees, 3000 square foot McMansions with stairs, enormous upkeep and energy bills is no way to go on a fixed income.
If the market sours, like it probably will, expect retirees to NOT retire, or stay right where they are, until the market bottoms out, and prices return to reasonable levels...and if they did'nt indulge in the insanity of the last couple years, then maybe they can buy an overpriced condo for pennies on the dollar.
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/
It all depends on where you want to be. If you must be in a metro area, then increased population leads to lower value for the dollar. In parts of Florida, you can get a very nice 2,000+ sqft place on a lake with 1+ acres for $200-300k (prior to 2002, those same places were < $175k). If you don't care about waterfront, prices drop drastically. You can build a 2,000+ sqft house with pool for about $80/sqft, you supply the land. In large metro areas, it would be difficult to even find a full acre and the prices increase with demand.