A Record Drop In Home Prices

Washington Post ^ | October 26, 2006 | Kirstin Downey

[GodGunsGuts]

The price of existing homes last month fell 2.2 percent, the largest monthly decline in the almost four decades the number has been tracked, according to an industry report released yesterday.

Nationwide, the number of existing single-family homes sold fell 14.2 percent in September compared with September 2005, according to the report from the National Association of Realtors. The number of sales has fallen each month since March.

Prices fell everywhere in the country, with the Northeast and West most affected. Declines were more moderate in the South, which includes the Washington area....

[GodGunsGuts]

==Extreme level of debt? Sounds scary!...All this gloom with no facts to back you up.

"In addition, as I already mentioned, disposable personal income has not kept pace with the interest we have to pay on our massive debts."

=Source?

==Unless you're comparing that to gold (0.0% yield), I'd say your assertion (lie?) was off just a bit.

They are not even close to being equally weighted. BTW, 2.1% beats the SP500 average yield. There are a number of other gold stocks that beat this average. So when you combine gold stock appreciation with yield, gold blows away the major indices. Any questions?

[GodGunsGuts]

Here's a graphic representation of what I'm talking about (for the 50th time):

[Petronski]

Now it is your turn to comment on their meaning, vis a vis our tete a tete, which frankly escapes me.

I've been observing your tete a tete with Gigi and frankly, laughing my ass off.

His charts are good for selling gold to rubes and fools, and you are neither.

As you said later in this thread, game, set and match.

[GodGunsGuts]

==It is not as if there are tons of empty homes out there.

Actually, if the following assessment is correct, there are indeed a ton of empty homes out there.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2005/0731.html

[GodGunsGuts]

He who never takes a position speaks!

[Petronski]

I never take a position? BS

You're a gold bug and you don't know squat about economics.


How's that for taking a position? LOL

[GodGunsGuts]

Unless they just walk away from their house, like many did in the early 1990s.

[1234]

superlative graph
brings back memories of int'l econ courses, and my youth....

[GodGunsGuts]

He who never takes a position speaks again...but still doesn't take a position...big surprise LOL!

[Petronski]

...but still doesn't take a position...

He who lies to shill gold tells another lie...big surprise LOL!

[sobieski]

Since we have a lower Debt/GDP ratio than Germany, France or Holland, why not worry about a drop in the euro?

[Petronski]

BTW, I noticed your graphs use the address "http://64.29.208.119/" in their links, so as to conceal your data is coming from PrudentBear.com:

I'd conceal that sourcing too if I were you. LOL

[GodGunsGuts]

The Euro has many of the same problems as the USD. But it will continue to strengthen as more and more of our enemies (ie China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, etc) and some of our friends begin to diversify into the Euro.

[GodGunsGuts]

I don't conceal anything. I'm proud to post articles from Prudent Bear (and do so openly all the time). And as usual, you failed to notice that my charts come from a variety of sources. But I must say, Prudent Bear is among the best of them. So what's your position on the real estate bubble, Pedro?

[Petronski]

But I must say, Prudent Bear is among the best of them.

ROTFLMAO

So what's your position on the real estate bubble, Pedro?

Localized and wildly overblown, and exploited by fearmongers and gloomwhores who shill for shabby websites or to sell gold, Gold! GOLD!!!

How you didn't know that would be my take is beyond me.

[Petronski]

Also exploited, I might add, by your brothers in arms: leftists trying to badmouth the economy for political gain.

[Torie]

The article claims that there are 700,000 vacant homes as of July, 2005 as the residual stub number. That is ludicrous. Owners of homes don't leave them vacant. They either sell them or rent them out.

By the way, rental rates of homes in Orange and LA County have gone up substantially. I know. I rent out an 1100 square footer in LA now for $2600 a month (and probably could get $2750). The house if worth about $650,000. 3 years ago it was $2000 a month. A partner of mine is renting out is 1800 square footer in Mission Veijo for $2700 a month. It is also worth about $650,000, which is a cap rate of about 3.5% assuming a sale, and a Prop 13 prop tax increase to 1.1% of market value - not a bad return for a rental of a single family house. Rising rents is putting a floor on the amount of further decline in housing prices. It will take a rescession or substantially rising interest rates to push cap rates up, and prices down.

[GodGunsGuts]

You bring up an interesting point that I have been pondering for a while, but so far I haven't been able to form a position. For instance, my accountant owns a bunch of rental properties. He told me that when housing declined in the early 1990s the rental market also tanked. I have never quite got to the bottom of why this happened. But it has got me thinking about what will happen to the rental market if the housing market tanks. On the surface, it would seem that it would create extra demand for rentals. However, it also means that a whole host of flippers, second home owners, etc. will be forced to rent their condos and homes, thus increasing supply. Any comments on what would happen to the rental market under these conditions???

[Torie]

Your are departing Long Beach?

[GodGunsGuts]

Sorry, returning the USD to sound fundamentals and encouraging consumers and our government to stay out of debt is not a leftist position. Come to think of it, yours is the LEFTIST position. And if you read the leftists, the Keyesians, and the Communists...THEY ALL HATE GOLD.