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STRATFOR Croatia, Serbia: The Western Incentives Dilemma
http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=278912&selected=Analyses ^

Posted on 10/26/2006 9:29:34 AM PDT by kronos77

Summary

The United States said it will push for Croatia to be admitted to NATO in 2008. Meanwhile, the United Nations signaled it will delay a decision on independence from Kosovo until after Serbian elections, to allow Belgrade the stability needed to join the European Union. These events, which are part of a move by the West to offer Balkan countries incentives to democratize, highlight problems with encouraging longtime rivals Croatia and Serbia both to join NATO and the European Union.

If Croatia joins NATO, it can dictate the terms of any attempt by Serbia to secure membership itself via Croatia's veto power in the Atlantic alliance, effectively binding NATO to a pro-Croatian position on regional issues and leaving Serbia at Croatia's mercy. Thus, Croatian accession will only complicate matters in the Balkans by ending any attempt by NATO to act as a neutral party in the region.

For Serbia, Croatian membership in NATO represents a threat -- something that will shape politics in Belgrade. If Serbian radicals win the upcoming parliamentary elections, the Serbian government will become hostile toward a NATO that has embraced Croatia. If, on the other hand, pro-Western political parties win, they will try to push for Serbia's accession to NATO and the European Union. In that case, Serbia will have to cuddle up to Croatia, since its neighbor could veto Serbia's NATO membership. But if Croatia allows its longtime adversary to join the military alliance, it will only be under the harshest of terms, showing how even the best of Western intentions can founder on the complex shoals of Balkan politics.

(Excerpt) Read more at stratfor.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Government
KEYWORDS: allybetrayed; balkans; croatia; nato; serbia
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1 posted on 10/26/2006 9:29:34 AM PDT by kronos77
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To: joan; Smartass; zagor-te-nej; Lion in Winter; Honorary Serb; jb6; Incorrigible; DTA; ma bell; ...

Why is USA choosing wrong allies all over again?


2 posted on 10/26/2006 9:30:08 AM PDT by kronos77 (www.savekosovo.org and www.kosovo.net Save Kosovo from Islam!)
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To: kronos77

This is such a nonsense. If the Serbs will continue view Croats as a enemies, then indeed NATO members should keep Serbia outside of alliance. Croatia even as a member in practice cannot block Serbian bid without serious reason. Otherwise their relations with many other member states would suffer greatly. These states don’t want to listen Serbo-Croat BS all over again.


3 posted on 10/26/2006 9:42:48 AM PDT by Lukasz
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To: Lukasz

True, I do not wish to wiew Croates as enemies we both need to cooperrate to liberate parts of our peoples from Muslim occupation in Bosnia,

problem is that US and NATo are viewing SERBS as enemies.

now what would average Serb think?

1. US and NATo are supporting Bosnian Muslims and Croatia
2. US and NATO are supporting Kosovo Muslim Albanians
3. US and NATO wants to steal 15 % of our own territory.
4. Oh, US and NATO have bombed us for Albanian Muslims sake

Now can you explain it to Serbs?
Im trying, that is why Im here, but as much as few of us are trying, just one stupid sentence spoken my US or NATo official will throw back all of efforts 10 years in past.


4 posted on 10/26/2006 9:53:30 AM PDT by kronos77 (www.savekosovo.org and www.kosovo.net Save Kosovo from Islam!)
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To: kronos77



Members decide about NATO’s policy not single officials. The best way to avoid troubles with NATO (from time to time ruled by kind a Clintons) is to join alliance and this should be goal of Serbian foreign policy.


5 posted on 10/26/2006 10:14:45 AM PDT by Lukasz
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To: Lukasz
Enlightened self interest just isn't a Serbian character trait.

They seem to like their "Inat" too much to act differently.

6 posted on 10/26/2006 10:38:41 AM PDT by Hoplite
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To: Lukasz; Diocletian
You mean the alliance that the Hercegovi Croats want to be no part of? What fence are you straddling?
7 posted on 10/26/2006 10:48:44 AM PDT by montyspython (Love that chicken from Popeye's)
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To: kronos77

Nato should be working with both countries to bring them in on a parallel track. Once they are both in the alliance they will have to act like allies, they may as well start now.


8 posted on 10/26/2006 11:15:42 AM PDT by marron
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To: marron

NATO helped create that mess in the first place.


9 posted on 10/26/2006 11:18:39 AM PDT by montyspython (Love that chicken from Popeye's)
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To: Lukasz
If the Serbs will continue view Croats as a enemies, then indeed NATO members should keep Serbia outside of alliance.

Who says the Serbs view them as enemies? Not viewing someone as a friend doesn't necessarily mean you consider them an enemy. Besides, it worked fine in the case of Greece and Turkey.

10 posted on 10/26/2006 11:33:11 AM PDT by Banat (DEO • REGI • PATRIÆ | http://degaullist.wordpress.com)
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To: kronos77

Bump!


11 posted on 10/26/2006 11:35:13 AM PDT by F-117A (They say there is no such thing as an ex-Marine,.Murtha disproves that!!!)
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To: kronos77
"Now can you explain it to Serbs?"

Let me know if you work that one out - no one has given me a valid excuse for it either.

12 posted on 10/26/2006 12:01:37 PM PDT by norton
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To: Banat
>>>>>>>Besides, it worked fine in the case of Greece and Turkey.<<<<<

Greece and Turkey joined defensive organisation called NATO. At that time, Yugoslavia signed Ankara pact with Turkey and Greece.

NATO today is an offensive organisation and it is possible that destruction of Serbia is it's goal. Mind that Germany never paid reparations for crimes commited agaist the Serbs by Wehrmacht and their allies.

13 posted on 10/26/2006 12:36:23 PM PDT by DTA (Mr. President, Condy is asleep at the wheel !)
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To: DTA
NATO today is an offensive organisation and it is possible that destruction of Serbia is it's goal.

OK, it's offensive. Serbia should join it and be "offensive," too. It is in Serbia's interest, first and foremost - and that's why it should be done. I don't believe NATO's goal is what you say it is, because NATO has no purpose - thus it cannot have "goals." Look at a map of Europe and tell me if it makes any sense to you that Serbia should stay out of the EU/NATO? Serbia should go with the flow. Ми нисмо у позицији да исправљамо криве Дрине. Морамо гледати искључиво своје интересе.

14 posted on 10/26/2006 1:07:29 PM PDT by Banat (DEO • REGI • PATRIÆ | http://degaullist.wordpress.com)
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To: Banat
It's not that easy. Milosevio offered to NATO everything only to be accepted into NATO - Serbian troops for NATO missions, Serbian bases, anything, and then some. He was brushed away. Because NATO already has deciced Serbia will be a dinner, not dinner guest.

See, it is not the point what Serbia wants, or what Serbs like. It is the question what the inner core of NATO countries set as an objective. Nobody gives a fcuk what Denmark, Estonia, Slovakia or Slovenia want.

Stratfor points toward the exacerbation of the Balkan problem owing to NATO. During Cold war, Yugoslavia was silent NATO ally. You do not have to tell me how NATO acts when it acts amicaly. NATO is hostile towards Serbia.

If NATO really wanted to stabilize the Southern flank, it would make mandatory that Serbia and Croatia are accepted as members on the very same date. As it is now, it is obvious what is going to happen. To be blunt, re-enactment of NDH under Third Reich protection and Serbia under Wehrmacht occupation.

The events are rapidly unfolding and they are not going well for Serbia. Serbs better sober up and prepare for what awaits them.

15 posted on 10/26/2006 1:35:38 PM PDT by DTA (Mr. President, Condy is asleep at the wheel !)
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To: Banat
Who says the Serbs view them as enemies? Not viewing someone as a friend doesn't necessarily mean you consider them an enemy. Besides, it worked fine in the case of Greece and Turkey.

This kind of distrust mentioned in article is illogical. Those who think that after admission Croatia will create NATO’s policy towards Serbia live in fantasy world.

16 posted on 10/26/2006 1:43:06 PM PDT by Lukasz
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To: DTA

Well, half of NATO members are actively lobbying for Serbia to be admitted as soon as possible. Italy, Spain, Hungary, Austria, Greece, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Slovenia are all adamant about the continuation of EU membership talks with Serbia (they were broken off this May): they want it to happen now.

Croatia's NATO membership might well be put on hold until the conditions exist for a speedy Serbian entry. Might not be fair, but then again, when were Croatian/Serbian interests of paramount importance to the EU/NATO?


17 posted on 10/26/2006 1:45:21 PM PDT by Banat (DEO • REGI • PATRIÆ | http://degaullist.wordpress.com)
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To: Lukasz
Croatia and Serbia are not the best of friends, but they are not enemies. The bilateralism between the two states is more dynamic than ever. Over the past 10 years, Croatia has had more issues with Slovenia than with Serbia.
18 posted on 10/26/2006 1:48:06 PM PDT by Banat (DEO • REGI • PATRIÆ | http://degaullist.wordpress.com)
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To: montyspython
NATO helped create that mess in the first place.

And what you really want for Serbia? To be isolated and offended for almost everybody to the end of days? Probably you aren’t even Serb but “virtual nationalist” from US.

19 posted on 10/26/2006 1:49:30 PM PDT by Lukasz
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To: Banat

I bielieve you, that is how I see it as well. Just this logic from article make me angry a bit. :)


20 posted on 10/26/2006 1:54:21 PM PDT by Lukasz
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