Posted on 10/25/2006 11:32:16 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
The latest public poll, just out tonight, is chock full of issues and items to consider.
The headline from the Public Policy Institute of California poll only reinforces the conventional wisdom about the gubernatorial contest: Arnold Schwarzenegger is handily beating Phil Angelides... in this poll, by a commanding 48% to 30%.
But there's oh so much more...
Grumpy Dems More evidence that Democrats aren't so happy about their nominee for governor, nor the issues he's discussing. The poll shows just 57% of Dems would vote for Angelides as of now, with 21% casting their vote for Schwarzenegger. A full 50% of the Dems surveyed say they are "not satisfied" with the choices of candidates in the race. Want more? PPIC finds a whopping 67% of the Democrats said they are dissatisfied with the amount of attention the candidates are spending on issues that matter to them. That certainly sounds like a repudiation of the recent Angelides strategy to focus on items like linking the governor and President Bush, and the war in Iraq.
Et Tu, Bay Area? Playing the role of Gaius Julius Caesar... Phil Angelides. The PPIC survey's most damaging data for the Democrat may be that the Bay Area favors Schwarzenegger, 40% to 34%. Yep, the Bay Area... the bluest of 'blue' California. Granted, the region also has the largest percentage of undecided voters in this poll (17%), but it's awfully late in the game to try to secure your base if you're a Democratic candidate. In fact, of the four regions in the PPIC survey-- Bay Area, Central Valley, Los Angeles, Other Southern CA (hello North State??)-- the only region choosing Angelides over Schwarzenegger is LA... and that's only by two points (40% Angelides, 38% Schwarzenegger).
Chicken Or The Egg? Check out the strong correlation in Schwarzenegger's job approval ratings and likely voters' perception of whether the state is headed in the right direction... or the wrong direction:
PPIC-- October 2005 33% approve of guv on the job, 30% say state is headed in right direction 58% disapprove, 60% say state is headed in wrong direction
PPIC-- October 2006 47% approve of guv on the job, 44% say state is headed in right direction 46% disapprove, 45% say state is headed in wrong direction
It would be interesting to know which feeling drives the other one...
The Ethnic Divide There's some pretty compelling data in this survey about the split between Latino voters and non-Latino whites in California.
Example #1: Non-Latino whites prefer Schwarzenegger to Angelides 56%-23%, but Latinos prefer Angelides to Schwarzenegger 52%-25%. The two groups also hold almost mirror image opinions about the governor's record on the job. Something else to think about: non-Latino whtes are far more likely to vote. As PPIC's Mark Baldassare pointed out a few weeks ago in a study called California's Exclusive Electorate, while the adult population in California is 32% Latino, only 14% of likely voters are Latino. A whopping 72% of likely voters are... you guessed it... non-Latino whites.
Bonds: Yes, But Maybe No? Do voters want to use general obligation bonds for infrastructure needs? Yes, says the PPIC survey. Do they support Propositions 1B-1E? Not necessarily. Take Prop 1B, the $19.9 billion transportation bond measure. 80% of likely voters say it's either very or somewhat important to spend government cash on transportation needs in their region, yet only 51% plan to vote yes on 1B, just about the bare minimum needed for passage. A similar split can be found in the survey's findings about affordable housing (1C), schools (1D), and levees (1E). So what's the problem?
Bonds: Too Darn Much! Well, maybe the problem is the price tag. Almost six of every 10 voters surveyed say the $43 billion package is is too big (that includes the water bond, Proposition 84, which is actually losing in the poll).
Bonds: GOP Out of Step? One of the most contentious legislative battles over the infrastructure bonds this year was whether to include affordable housing in the package. Republicans at the Capitol weren't keen on $2.85 billion in bonds for housing (Prop 1C). Neither was the state GOP, whose leadership voted to officially oppose the measure. So, which of the bond measures is most popular? Yep. Prop 1C. 56% of likely voters support it, with support from Democrats and nonpartisan voters, as well as voters in the Bay Area, LA... and the Republican-friendly Central Valley... all clearly supporting the proposal (the rest of SoCal, FYI, is at 50% on the measure).
Down With DC And finally... Californians sure don't like what's going on back east. The PPIC survey says "trust in the federal government is at a new low." Only one in four trust the feds to do what is right always, or most, of the time. And two in three believe the federal government "wastes a lot of the money we pay in taxes."
Not yet available at PPIC .. but should be in the morning for further review.
Public Policy Institute of California
http://www.ppic.org/main/home.asp
LAT has similar info here as well
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/politicalmuscle/2006/10/schwarzenegger__11.html#more
Hmm...
I hope it's off because it shows the whole slate of 1B-1E bonds passing (although some only barely).
What's clear is Angelides message is getting to voters with them reporting his ads have been seen the most. Somehow CA dislikes Bush but Phil's attempt to tie Arnold to Bush hasn't struck a cord.
Why do Republicans think tax dollars are less wasted by D.C. than others?
CA hates its legislature.
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"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus
The bonds will all fail, not even the Gubinator can sell this load of patootie and debt if past history holds true.
We have a legislature and leadership that are not willing to rein in runaway spending , and borrowing is not a sound fiscal policy to be exercised constantly.
Pay as you go ..
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