Can you elaborate? I'm not sure I follow what you mean.
It's a bit fuzzy, to be sure. Pundits are using words like Tilt, Lean, Likely/Strong, Safe, but what does that really mean?
I decided against a linear scale, such as 50-60-70-80-90-100 because I didn't want to get into "lean and a half" type distinctions. I wanted something that clearly differentiated the categories. That's why I came up with the doubling scale, where each category is twice better than the prior.
I also played with a scale along the same lines, but had Tilt at 5% (giving a 5-10-20-40 range), which left nothing truly safe -- that is Safe Democrat was 10% and Safe Republican was 90%. This implied that one in every 10 elections could result in a loss (last-minute gaffe)?
Do you have some ideas on how to quantify the verbal scale that people are using?
-PJ
I don't really, have good definitions for the terms, but to me safe means a seat isn't in play, and absent a huge wave, the challenger has less than a 5% chance to win. Likely is like an 85% chance. In other words, the formula is more exponential than yours seems to be.