OK, here goes!
PA-06: The highest that Gerlach has polled all cycle long was 47% and that was in his own internal POS poll. In indy polls Gerlach has polled at 46%, 41%, 44%, and 45%; Murphy has polled at 52%, 43%, 41%, and 50%. We all know that Gerlach barely eked out wins in both 2002 and 2004, and we all know that Murphy got 49% in 2004. It is implausible to me that Murphy will do worse in 2006 than in 2004, and one thought that I've had lately is that everyone seems to be ignoring the incumbent-under-50% rule. To top it off, as of Oct 18 Murphy had $729,717 CoH versus $555,960 CoH for Gerlach, and Murphy has outspent Gerlach by $2,827,042 versus $2,684,384.
WI-08: This one is fairly difficult for me to grasp neatly as well, but Kagen has outspent Gard by $2,140,887 to $2,028,258 and more importantly is a self-funder. Since the 10/18 reports Kagen has given his campaign a further $770,000. That's what tips the scale to Kagen in my ratings. My sense is that the race is essentially tied (Kagen actually has a slight lead within the MoE in the few polls) and so the money advantage combined with a floundering GOP campaign for governor and the national mood tips it to the Dems.
MN-06: The October polling average is 45.4% Bachmann to 45.6% Wetterling. I am rating the seat accordingly with a tip to Bachmann due to the partisan lean of the district. Wetterling continues to have a cash advantage ($783,552 v $563,653 as of 10/18) so that's what also keeps things close and in Toss Up in my estimation. I did however seriously consider rating MN-06 below the quartet of freshmen below it and do not object to the idea myself. I also think the race may be firming toward Bachmann, so if there's more evidence of that I'm quite open to moving it so far down as slight Lean GOP (around current FL-22 range).
PA-08: I posted my ratings before I saw the latest Keystone Poll released late last night. I would likely have notched PA-08 down just a bit if I'd seen that first. However, I would note that the Keystone Poll tends to favor the GOP and that Fitzpatrick polls below 50% at 48%. The two are about even on CoH ($490,090 Fitzpatrick; $448,884 Murphy) and the district leans Dem. That latter is a big part of why I've moved Fitzpatrick up to Toss Up from Lean GOP: The Rendell machine should be in full force in the Philly suburbs and Santorum certainly isn't going to be much help either. The NRCC has not written out PA-08. These are their PA expenditures in the past week: PA-04, $140,607; PA-06, $703,893; PA-07, $840,112; PA-08, $782,450; PA-10, $177,331. If anyone's been written off it's Sherwood; and Fitzpatrick is clearly still thought to be in need of help.
I really have to run now! I won't be able to post on the remaining questions until sometime this evening, but I'll definitely get to them.
I see nothing to really disagree with on your points.
I would remark that the reasons why I think the incumbent under 50% rule has been ignored more of late is because of the great amount of data that's come in over the past few years that shown that since the early 1990s, the trend has been towards undecideds breaking close to even between incumbent and challenger, as opposed to years prior to that period.
Oh, and about the Keystone Poll, it appears to be your standard uni poll. Strangely enough, its results have favored the Republican in comparison to other polls this year, but in 2004, its results skewed Democratic compared to other polls and the final result. The final result was Kerry +5. Just some food for thought. I just usually consider this to be your "crappy uni poll" bias.
Oh, among the news items, I thought you might like to know for your list that in FL-16, the Republicans will be allowed to put signs up at polling places saying "a vote for Negron means Foley". Only the Secretary of State is not allowed to. Apparently, Democrats are not appealing the decision either.
http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2006/10/signs_going_up.html