First, I want to comment with regard to the raging debate about whether or not an election wave is imminent. As even the dimmest political junkie must realize, opinions range from Bob Novak, who not only rejects the notion for 2006 but even insists that "the famous Gingrich election of 1994 was not a wave," to Stuart Rothenberg, who holds that "Republicans probably are at risk to lose as few as 45 seats and as many as 60 seats" (though his official prediction is nowhere near that extreme, yet). Whatever the right or wrong of that debate, this question of waves has created a real dilemma for me, which is only magnified by the fact that I not only rate the House seats but rank them as well. In my view, the relative susceptibility of given districts to a 'normal' localized election differs from the relative susceptibility to a nationalized 'wave' election.
To cut the long story short, I've decided to resolve this dilemma but making dual predictions. On my latest list I have inserted arrows at two levels: The first, as before, is my prediction based on a race-by-race 'normal' election analysis. The second is my prediction with a 'wave factor' included, based on the scale of wave that I think most plausible. As for ratings, a wave simply jacks up each category, so that the Toss Ups become Lean Dem and the Lean GOPs become Toss Up, etc. So, with no further ado, here goes!
Lean Democratic
01 (TX-22) DeLay*
02 (AZ-08) Kolbe*
03 (PA-10) Sherwood
04 (IN-08) Hostettler
05 (NY-24) Boehlert*
06 (CO-07) Beauprez*
07 (PA-07) Weldon
08 (OH-15) Pryce
09 (IA-01) Nussle*
10 (PA-06) Gerlach
11 (IN-02) Chocola
12 (FL-16) Foley*
Toss Up
13 (NM-01) Wilson
14 (NC-11) Taylor
15 (OH-18) Ney*
16 (CT-04) Shays
17 (IN-09) Sodrel
18 (WI-08) Green*
19 (CT-02) Simmons
20 (IL-06) Hyde* <<
21 (NY-26) Reynolds
22 (OH-01) Chabot
23 (MN-06) Kennedy*
24 (VA-02) Drake
25 (WA-08) Reichert
26 (NY-29) Kuhl
27 (PA-08) Fitzpatrick
28 (FL-13) Harris*
Lean Republican
29 (KY-04) Davis
30 (NY-20) Sweeney
31 (CT-05) Johnson
32 (FL-22) Shaw
33 (AZ-05) Hayworth
34 (NY-25) Walsh
35 (KY-03) Northup
36 (MN-01) Gutknecht
37 (ID-01) Otter*
38 (NV-03) Porter
39 (AZ-01) Renzi
40 (NH-02) Bass
41 (NV-02) Gibbons*
42 (WY-AL) Cubin <<
43 (OH-12) Tiberi
44 (PA-04) Hart
45 (NY-19) Kelly
46 (CA-11) Pombo
47 (CO-04) Musgrave
48 (OH-02) Schmidt
49 (IA-02) Leach
50 (NY-03) King
51 (VA-10) Wolf
52 (NC-08) Hayes
53 (CO-05) Hefley*
54 (NJ-07) Ferguson
55 (IL-10) Kirk
56 (TX-23) Bonilla
Likely Republican
57 (NE-01) Fortenberry
58 (IN-03) Souder
59 (CA-04) Doolittle
60 (FL-08) Keller
61 (CA-50) Bilbray
62 (NE-03) Osborne*
63 (KY-02) Lewis
64 (WA-05) McMorris
65 (KS-02) Ryun
66 (MN-02) Kline
67 (MI-08) Rogers
68 (OH-14) LaTourette
69 (IL-11) Weller
70 (FL-09) Bilirakis*
I'll save my latest ratings for Dem-held seats for a subsequent post. It's worth noting, BTW, that my personal confidence level has gone up sharply since my last House revision. That doesn't mean I'm any more right, of course, it just means that I'm more sure that I'm on the right track than I thought I was before.. And, yes, I realize that my ratings aren't exactly cause for celebration, but c'est la vie!
PS. Note that the TX-23 contest is now predicted to be decided in a runoff between Henry Bonilla (R) and Lukin Gilliland (D).
Lean Democratic
01 (GA-08) Marshall
02 (IL-08) Bean
03 (WV-01) Mollohan
04 (VT-AL) Sanders(I)*
05 (GA-12) Barrow
06 (IA-03) Boswell
07 (LA-03) Melancon
08 (OR-05) Hooley
Likely Democratic
09 (IL-17) Evans*
10 (IN-07) Carson
11 (CO-03) Salazar
12 (SC-05) Spratt
13 (TX-17) Edwards
14 (NC-13) Miller
15 (LA-02) Jefferson
16 (KS-02) Moore
If anyone really wants me to I could also post my 14 seat Watch List of GOP-held seats. They are all 'officially' rated Safe and I'm disinclined to post them together with the seats I'm rating as competitive. (I also have a 4 seat Watch List of Dem-held districts, fwiw).
What caused you to put NY-24 so high?
I'll ask a few questions on a few of the races, out of curiosity. Once again, it's really an excellent job.
I do think that, out of all the states w/competitive races, NY is the one that raises the most questions in my mind, because of the up-ballot GOP massacre. Yet, at the same time, the polling is just so questionable. It's kind of obvious that C-D's NY-19 and NY-20 polls were dead wrong (based on later internals and Indy polls), which leaves me unsure of the rest of their polls in the state. Yet, I really don't know what to make of NY-26 either and SUSA's polls of the race.
Anyway, enough of my own commentary. Now for the questions:
10. PA-06: What do you make of the fact that Murphy's own internal only puts her 3 in front of Gerlach? Personally, I have the race in toss-up towards the top end.
18. WI-08: This is a race I don't get, though it's obviously close. What's your thinking here?
23. MN-06: How do you think the SUSA poll of a few days ago (showing Bachmann up 6) fits in with the overall contest? I've moved the race down a bit on my own list.
27. PA-08: The NRCC doesn't seem to have this on their list for spending and yet we have a Keystone Poll out today showing Fitz up 9. Your thoughts?
28. FL-13: I'm guessing this one's in toss-up because of the money Buchanan's spending. I personally think he's behind, outside of MOE, and place this one much higher on my list. Your thoughts?
On 38 and 41, I'm curious which one you think is more competitive? I know that Novak has placed NV-03 above NV-02 and yet I'm only seen the national campaigns spending money on NV-02.
40: NH-02: Opinions vary widely on this one, including my own, especially after the questionable uni poll showed Bass down 8. What's your thought?
56: TX-23: The race I always ask about. I've noted that Gilliland got Bolanos endorsement and is basically the only candidate running advertising that I've heard about. Are there any polls on the race (I haven't seen any), or are you just assuming that the multitude of candidates plus one actually advertising and the anti-straight party vote structure, along with the lean of the CD is going to push this one into a runoff?