[Torie]

And there you have it. The black box has spoken.

[Princip. Conservative]

Stupid, stupid, stupid. When will these analysts ever learn to stop believing the polls?

[MEGoody]

In a new research paper, three political scientists attempt to use the results of generic congressional polls to predict the outcome of the midterm elections.

Yeah, and we all know how accurate polls are. :::sarc:::

[finnman69]

generic vote polls

USELESS

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/generic_vote.html

RCP Final Pre-Election Avg 10/27 - 11/1 45.4% 45.4% TIE
GW/Battleground 10/31-11/1 47% 44% R + 3%
CNN/USAT/Gallup 10/29 - 10/31 46% 47% D + 1%
NBC/WSJ 10/29 - 10/31 43% 44% D + 1%
Rasmussen 10/29 - 10/31 42% 48% D +6%
Democracy Corps (D) 10/29 - 10/31 46% 48% D + 2%
Newsweek 10/27 - 10/29 49% 44% R + 5%
Democracy Corps (D) 10/26 - 10/28 45% 48% D + 3%
GW-Battleground 10/25 - 10/28 44% 45% D + 1%
Rasmussen 10/25 - 10/27 43% 44% D + 1%
Democracy Corps (D) 10/24 - 10/25 42% 51% D + 9%
CNN/USAT/Gallup 10/22 - 10/24 50% 47% R + 3%
Newsweek 10/21 - 10/22 47% 46% R + 1%
Democracy Corps (D) 10/20 - 10/21 44% 49% D + 5%
GW-Battleground 10/18 - 10/21 43% 46% D + 3%
AP-Ipsos 10/18 - 10/20 46% 47% D + 1%
CBS News 10/14 - 10/17 39% 45% D + 6%
Rasmussen 10/14 - 10/16 42% 44% D + 2%
Newsweek 10/14 - 10/15 43% 46% D + 3%
GW-Battleground 10/11 - 10/14 40% 44% D + 4%
Rasmussen 10/7 - 10/9 42% 44% D + 2%
GW-Battleground 10/4 - 10/7 42% 43% D + 1%
AP/Ipsos 10/4 - 10/6 44% 48% D + 4%
Rasmussen 10/3 - 10/5 41% 46% D + 5%
Democracy Corps (D) 10/3 - 10/5 45% 49% D + 4%

[Busywhiskers]

The only poll that matters is actual vote.

[GVnana]

LOL! bump.

[jwalsh07]

Bookmarked.

[finnman69]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/03/last_weeks_myths_about_2006.html


"If you look at the Gallup generic measure since 1994, you will see that the average poll skews toward the Democrats by an average of 6%. In 2002, the average skew was a whopping 8%. The final Gallup poll before the election has fared even worse. It has skewed toward the Democrats by 7% on average and by 10% in 2002."

[MNJohnnie]

Only problem is the polling data they are feeding the black box is junk. Garbage in, Garbage out.

[VRWCTexan]

Great - now I don't even have to bother to go vote.... (sac/off)

[johnny7]

Novak is saying Dem's gain 26 House seats. Hey Bob... f _ _ k you!

[newcthem]

I guess it is about time for a few of us dumb ol' Republicans to show this learned man, just how wrong he is....................

[prov1813man]

"Near", as in "close" but no cigar.

Hehe. Gotta love their little pointy heads.

[TLI]

"Via computer simulation based on statistical analysis of historical data, we show how generic vote polls can be used to forecast the election outcome. We convert the results of generic vote polls into a projection of the actual national vote for Congress and ultimately into the partisan division of seats in the House of Representatives.

behind the scenes...

[Al Simmons]

"Political Scientist" = Oxymoron

[Texas Chilli]

Are these the same University "experts" who claimed that President George Washington and all the other presidents got blow jobs from interns while in the White House during the "everybody does it" campaign? Just wondering...LOL

[tom h]

"Political Scientists Say Democratic Control [of House] a Near Certainty'"

OK. Will they quit, or submit themselves to public ridicule if they are wrong?

[grobdriver]

Our model allows both a point forecast

The only "point" is on top of your head, fella.

[Arrowhead1952]

"Via computer simulation based on statistical analysis of historical data, we show how generic vote polls can be used to forecast the election outcome.

Yup. That same idea got Skerry and edwards elected in 2004... Oh wait.... NOT!

Every time I read this type of garbage, this comes to mind.

........................

[lexington minuteman 1775]

"ANSWER HAZY, PLEASE TRY AGAIN."
Who are they trying to convince? Us or them?
Everyday there is a whole new spate of Republicans are doomed. And the only conservative I have read who says we will lose house is Michael Barone?
SO WHO ARE THESE DOOM AND GLOOM NAYSAYERS?

[adam_smith_76]

Well given all these studies and polls, we might as well call off the election. The Democrats have already won. It's over, and we'll save time and money if we just use the pollsters to coronate those who are now ahead. Besides, it will save black people the horror of the Republican harassment and dirty tricks that always keep them from voting. We might as well turn over the Senate, too, since the Democrats should rightly have it. Of course Bush actually lost two times, so he needs to go too.

A glimpse into the mind of a liberal.