Posted on 10/25/2006 10:31:38 AM PDT by DM1
With Democratic momentum mounting and control of the House at stake, senior Republican strategists are urging donors to contribute to 33 GOP members and candidates who are “most in need of support right now.”
The National Republican Congressional Committee’s (NRCC) “Final Push List” consists of 29 Republican seats and only four Democratic seats, indicating that the GOP is playing defense.
The list, obtained by The Hill, provides a rare glimpse of the races that congressional strategists are concentrating on close to Election Day.
NRCC focuses on most but not all toss-up House races in its Final Push roster, dated Oct. 19.
In an e-mail to congressional officials, NRCC PAC Director Jenny Sheffield states, “…it’s crucial at this point to send in some late money to some [of] our campaigns. The funds our candidates receive now will allow them to increase their TV buys and will make the difference on Nov. 7.
“I have attached our Final Push list for those Members and candidates most in need of support right now. If your boss has not maxed out to those on the attached list, please ask him or her to consider sending a check from a leadership PAC and/or reelection account … IMMEDIATELY!”
Republicans have also sent the list to lobbyists, seeking donations. The NRCC list (see chart) has many endangered Republicans, including four each from Ohio and New York, and three from Pennsylvania. It also contains some surprises, such as Rep. Cathy McMorris (R-Wash.), whose seat was considered safe earlier this month.
Conservative GOP candidate Tim Walberg, who defeated centrist Rep. Joe Schwarz (R-Mich.) in a bitter primary earlier this year, is also on the Final Push roster. Even though he has significantly outspent his Democratic opponent, Sharon Renier, Walberg leads the race by just eight points, according to a recent poll.
Renier has $1,379 cash on hand while Walberg has over $85,000 in the bank. President Bush won the district in 2004 with 54 percent of the vote.
Republican incumbents who did not make the Final Push cut include Reps. Chris Chocola (Ind.), Michael Fitzpatrick (Pa.), John Hostettler (Ind.), Nancy Johnson (Conn.), Jon Porter (Nev.), Clay Shaw (Fla.), Christopher Shays (Conn.), and Charles Taylor (N.C.).
These Republicans are in highly competitive races, but several have major fundraising advantages over their opponents and are not in dire need of NRCC assistance.
But Fitzpatrick, Hostettler, and Taylor have less cash on hand than their Democratic opponents.
Hostettler is in serious jeopardy of losing his seat. The sixth-term incumbent is a lackluster fundraiser and trailed Democratic candidate Brad Ellsworth by 23 points in a recent poll.
Taylor is behind in his race against former pro quarterback Health Shuler by single digits, while Fitzpatrick’s race is expected to go down to the wire.
NRCC spokesman Ed Patru said the Final Push List “is fluid,” suggesting it has been revised since late last week. He noted that Hostettler does not accept PAC money and that Fitzpatrick’s opponent, Patrick Murphy, has “greatly underperformed.” However, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently moved the Fitzpatrick-Murphy race from lean Republican to toss-up.
Asked about Taylor’s exclusion from the list, Patru said, “Taylor has always written his own check.”
Spokespersons for Fitzpatrick, Hostettler, and Taylor did not comment for this article.
In her e-mail to congressional officials, NRCC’s Sheffield suggests she can “tier” the list of 33, adding, “We very much need your help as our most endangered Members and candidates go into the final stretch!!! Your support now could make or break a Republican majority next cycle!!!”
The NRCC seems willing to concede former Rep. Tom DeLay’s (R-Texas) seat. Former Rep. Nick Lampson (D-Texas) has $1.7 million cash on hand and Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, the GOP nominee, is not on the ballot, running an uphill write-in campaign.
Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.), who heads the NRCC and is in a tight race with Democrat Jack Davis, is not on the Final Push list.
Reynolds has repeatedly said there will be three dozen hotly contested House races this fall, but polls suggest the universe of competitive contests is closer to 50. Most political experts anticipate Democrats will win the necessary 15 seats to gain control of the lower chamber, with some predicting they could gain a net of 30 seats.
Some Republicans who made the NRCC cut already enjoy significant cash advantages over their opponents. Rep. Geoff Davis (R-Ky.) has $1.65 million in the bank compared to his adversary, former Rep. Ken Lucas (D-Ky.), with over $380,000 cash on hand. Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R-Colo.), also on the list, has a three-to-one cash advantage over her opponent.
Peter Roskam, the GOP nominee to replace retiring Rep. Henry Hyde (R-Ill.) is on the list, even though he has $1.5 million to play with while Democrat Tammy Duckworth has just over $200,000.
These numbers do not include the infusion of cash to candidates from the NRCC and DCCC.
Joe Negron, who is seeking to fill ex-Rep. Mark Foley’s (R-Fla.) seat, needs 16th district voters to punch in Foley’s name in order for him to win. House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) publicly conceded that Republicans are unlikely to win this race, but the NRCC nonetheless has Negron on its list.
The four Democrats that the NRCC is targeting in its Final Push are Reps. John Barrow (Ga.), Melissa Bean (Ill.), Leonard Boswell (Iowa), and Jim Marshall (Ga.). Independent political analysts say Republicans will be fortunate to win one of these races.
Earlier this year, NRCC was targeting Reps. John Spratt (D-S.C.) and Alan Mollohan (D-W. Va.). Republicans now appear to be throwing in the towel on those races by pulling back ads on these two Democrats and not targeting them in their Oct. 19 document.
Open seats that the NRCC is not making a final push for include the competitive contests for retiring Reps. Bob Beauprez (R-Colo.) and Jim Kolbe (R-Ariz.) as well as Rep. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who is running for the Senate. Peter Welch, the Democrat seeking to win Sanders’ seat, enjoys a major cash-on-hand advantage over Republican Martha Rainville.
Patru said Rainville is “where she needs to be in fundraising.” Rainville’s campaign did not return a phone call seeking comment.
The NRCC is concerned about the open seat of retiring Rep. Joel Hefley (R-Colo.). Even though Bush won the district with 66 percent in 2004, GOP candidate Doug Lamborn is struggling and trails the money race to Democrat Jay Fawcett. Hefley has refused to endorse Lamborn, criticizing how Lamborn ran his campaign in the GOP primary. Lamborn was included on the Final Push list.
Similarly, Bush won 68 percent in Idaho’s first district, but NRCC wants more resources put into the race. Retiring Rep. Butch Otter (R-Idaho) is running for governor and GOP nominee Bill Sali has struggled to gain traction against political neophyte Larry Grant.
Political observers say that House Republicans are headed for a long election night if they have to worry about seats in these two conservative districts.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Bill Burton said, “This list makes clear they have finally caught up with the reality that even in places so Republican that George Bush received 60-70 percent of the vote, their candidates are deeply endangered.”
Of the 33 races on the GOP list, nine are open-seat contests.
A leadership aide familiar with the NRCC Final Push initiative said it has raised $2 million.
It means they have found the most important 33 races, and aren't taking any chances on them.
This news doesn't seem all that bad to me.
We are still targeting 4 Dem incumbents, Club for Growth is targetting a 5th (South Carolina).
IN-7 is in play, and the party is staying away, which is good because it's a Dem district and the party might just mess it up. It needs to play out on it's own.
33 races, less 9 open seats, less 4 Democrat targets, means 20 Republican incumbents.
Meaning the GOP is most concerned about 20 incumbents, not too terrible, atleast better than what the media has been saying.
Oh. Now I understand. This isn't a list they are giving US, the Public, to guide our giving.
This is the list they send to all of the republicans in the house, to inform THEM where to send their excess campaign money.
This is part of the push to redirect funds from candidates with no competition, to candidates who need the money. Also to major donors to help them know where to send money.
You can't find this list on the NRCC web site.
On second review, it is a bit disconcerting to see 4 Ohio seats on the list.
Why this list was made public?
NRCC Final Push List – Money Targets
October 19, 2006
District, Member/candidate
AZ-05, Hayworth
CO-04, Musgrave
CO-05, Lamborn
CT-02, Simmons
FL-16, Negron
GA-08, Collins
GA-12, Burns
IA-01, Whalen
IA-03, Lamberti
ID-01, Sali
IL-06, Roskam
IL-08, McSweeney
IN-09, Sodrel
KY-04, Davis
MI-07, Walberg
MN-06, Bachmann
NH-02, Bass
NM-01, Wilson
NY-20, Sweeney
NY-24, Meier
NY-25, Walsh
NY-29, Kuhl
OH-01, Chabot
OH-02, Schmidt
OH-15, Pryce
OH-18, Padgett
PA-06, Gerlach
PA-07, Weldon
PA-10, Sherwood
VA-02, Drake
WA-05, McMorris
WA-08, Reichert
WI-08, Gard
This article seems determined to hand Pelosi the Speaker's gavel. It relies on the "everyone is saying" nonsense to paint as inevitable Democratic control of the House. I'm really getting tired of this conventional wisdom which is based on faulty turnout models, the idiotic assumption Republicans won't vote because we're all mad about Foley and not a small dose of wishful thinking.
And notice the comment "The GOP will be lucky to pick up one of those seats" in the Dem. incumbent seats that are endangered. Such horsesh-t. Those 4 races have the Republicans close, neck to neck or even ahead, so they're every bit as competitive as the races Democrats are "heavily favored" to win. Plus, it doesn't even mention Julia Carson's seat where the Republican is ahead.
Sorry, but this gloom and doom is just not going to hold up on election day.
Here's why:
Hopelessly lost: az-8, co-7, in-2, in-8, ct-4,
Should be ok: ky-3, pa-8, ct-5, fl-22, ny-19
Self-funded: fl-13
RNC funded: ny-26
Did you read the article? This is an NRCC email identifying those seats.
Which candidates are these?
Graf, O'Donnell, Chocola, Hostettler, Shays.
What's wrong with Hostettler and Shays?
Notice that the two GA Dem seats are on the list (08 and 12), I predict we will win these seats, one of them at the very least.
Chocola is supposed to be well-funded already, and shays is not considered "hopeless", but he also has enough money.
The blogosphere realizes that the Democratic momentum has already begun to stutter and stall. The dinosaur MSM won't pick up on it for three or four more days.
Clearly this article is nothing but more Democratic misinformation.
The NRCC was at one of the Precents in Tom Delay's CD22 district handing out literature.
Skeula-Gibbs is not running an 'uphill campaign'.
The Democrats are so afraid of her that they are sending out literature saying that she is too liberal for Texas!
Skeula-Gibbs is going to win this seat.
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