"Are The Dems Blowing It?"
Lewinsky puns notwithstanding, I think it's a past tense issue at this point.
My (Democratic) party has made some big political mistakes this election cycle. The biggest in my view is the continuing failure to outline a positive agenda to contrast with the Republicans. It's one thing to convince people that your opposition is _____ (insert the negative term of your choice). It is quite another to convince them that they should show up and vote for you.
Congressional elections have lower turnout and are typically determined by which party can mobilize it's base. Those in the middle (Independents and lukewarm Republicans and Democrats) show up for Presidential elections. But they have to have a good reason to show up on an off year. My party has given the folks in the middle a lot of reason to think that the Republicans are a bunch of bums, but not much reason to think that the Democrats will be significantly better.
Second is the issue of hubris. I think that a lot of Democrats have convinced themselves that they this election is in the bag. It isn't, and no election ever is until the votes have been counted.
Third, I think the attacks on Republicans have peaked early. I don't agree with a political strategy that says that the best way to win an election is to publicize bad news about your opposition. But be that as it may, if you're going to rely on that, timing is everything.
My prediction. The Democrats might win one house of Congress. Contrary to the author of this article, I think the U.S. Senate is more in play than the House. And it is very possible that neither changes hands. I don't see a huge shift one way or the other.
If this were a Presidential election, I have no doubt that President Bush would lose. But it isn't.
If this were a Presidential election, I have no doubt that President Bush would lose.
And you would be wrong about that. Again.