I am aware of the supposed break with APPO, as I posted
a thread on that subject yesterday from an article on the
El Universal web site. The article I posted at the top of this thread suggests that Rueda Pacheco may not be fully in control of Section 22 of the SNTE. That's what we're waiting to see play out.
We'll probably have a pretty good idea which way Section 22 is going by early to mid week.
Sorry, hadn't seen the other post. I take the APPO as less sinister than you do, since I see it more as a loosely organized -- and typically Mexican -- temporary coalition of several different groups ... the teachers' union (whose fights have been going on for years), the majority that thinks Ulizes Ruiz' 2004 election was fraudulent (I agree with them... and don't know any observers in Mexico who think his election was kosher), and the Oaxancas who were upset over mismanagement and fraud in the city's urban beautification project -- which favored the big money interests over the small merchants (like urban renewal projects around the world).
Jetting back and forth to Mexico City isn't sinister. That's normal during union-government negotiations of this kind. I agree that the SNTE teacher who was shot probably was shot by an APPO supporter -- which means the suspect is a lot of people in that State. On the other hand "agents provacatuers" have a long and dishonorable history in Mexico, and the Governor's attempts to use police agents to create violence at the demonstration outside his hotel a few weeks ago raises some eyebrows. Really, though, one or two deaths in a 6 month civil demonstration is a very, very, very low level of violence.
I've been talking on and off with several people in the State, especially foreigners. They all agree it's safe to visit, though they worry about the future, naturally.