Computing The Schwarzenegger Coattail Index: A Guide to the Downticket Races

Flashreport ^ | Oct. 19, 2006 | Dan Schnur

[FairOpinion]

Assuming Arnold maintains his leads in the polls and pulls off a double-digit win, he'll almost certain bring Steve Poizner and Bruce McPherson into office with him. Chuck Poochigian's a good man, but that's a longer shot against Jerry Brown, and Claude Parrish is an even longer shot than that. But somewhere in the middle are the McClintock and Strickland campaigns, both of whom could end up riding Schwarzenegger coattails to victory as well.

There are too many variables at this point to predict a likely margin of victory for Schwarzenegger, so instead allow me to submit the Schwarzenegger Coattail Index (SCI):

[FairOpinion]

He also gives prediction on the point spread. (go to link above for detailed predictions)

Poizner and McPherson seem to have the best shot of riding to victory on Arnold's coattails.

Then Strickland and McClintock, if Arnold wins by a landslide.

Maybe conservatives should turn out and make sure Arnold wins by a landslide....

[Enterprise]

If Arnold wins by 18-20 points, Poochigian will be elected Attorney General."

I think Arnold will win huge. I am hoping it is so huge that Poochigian will win also. If anything, Republicans need to use "polling" numbers to their advantage and begin putting out the message to Democrats that this election is over and they may as well stay at home. Meanwhile, Republicans need to turn out as if the Presidency was at stake.

[b9]

It'll be interesting to see what legs the Jerry Brown discovery will have, and how, and if, it affects the Republican ticket as a whole.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1722064/posts

It seems VERY clear Brown is in violation.

[Parley Baer]

Looks like going by the law Jerry Brown is ineligible to be attorney general. Not that will stop the dimocRATS.

[SierraWasp]

Again you've deliberately (evidently) left an excellent conservative, Dick Mountjoy out of your baseless observations. Of course Poisoner and McPerson as muddled moderates will ride whatever coat tales exist, but Strickland and McClintock will be just blind, dumb luck if they get any lift whatsoever along with the poor guy struggling to keep Moonbeam away from us as chief lawyer for CA!

Again! Arnold Swartzenegger couldn't care less what happens to ANYONE else, other than himself... EVER!!!

[1035rep]

Mountjoy is not discussed in the article SW.

I voted for him! Sent in my absentee ballot this morning. 

[b9]

The article itself fails to mention Mountjoy, who is a GOOD MAN.

Perhaps an 80-90 point Arnold victory could usher in a defeat for Feinstein?
(By the logic of the article.)

[FairOpinion]

Dick Mountjoy couldn't beat Feinstein, even if Arnold would win by 95%.

The only reason you keep pushing Mountjoy, is precisely because he has no chance of winning.

I know that seeing that other Republicans actually have a chance to beat the Dems deeply saddens you -- obviously, you keep proving that over and over.

[b9]

I think everyone here is voting for Mountjoy.
I haven't heard of ANYONE here who is not.

Most are dedicated to a straight Republican ticket.

[FairOpinion]

"Most are dedicated to a straight Republican ticket."

Exactly.

BTW, SierraWasp, are YOU voting streight Republican ticket?

[SierraWasp]

Yes! Absolutely!! I'm voting for each and every Republican that merits a vote from me and absolutely no Dems, or third party candidates!!!

Surprised??? You shouldn't be!!!

[1035rep]

I know I did.  Straight "R" !

[Amerigomag]

Then Strickland and McClintock, if Arnold wins by a landslide.

According to Jon Fleischman:

Conservative blogger Jon Fleischman says Republicans up and down the ticket may get a boost, not from Schwarzenegger, but from McClintock. "With the poll showing McClintock tied with Garamendi, I have seen the surge in enthusiasm. It's created such energy among the conservative community," he says. "A month ago, I would have told you Arnold's shift to the left will lower Republican turnout. The news about McClintock being so close spread through the grass roots like a wildfire. Conservatives have been trying to elect Tom McClintock for a long time. If McClintock wins his election, he becomes the titular leader of the Republican Party because Arnold Schwarzenegger is choosing to be more of the bipartisan leader, as is his prerogative,"

[SierraWasp]

That's because Schnur is a Pete Wilsonegger flunky! He always was and always will be! Like Pete Wilson, who called McClintock "(bleeping) irrelevant," he is happiest when conservatives are severe underdogs!!!

Thanks for the perfect moniker (Wilsonegger), Amerigomag!!!

[b9]

Battle of the Coattails ~
Latest talking point.
The Firm is ever vigilant,
dividing up the joint.

[SierraWasp]

I LOVE that little observation!

I like it!

I love it!!

I want somemore of it!!!

www.helpTom.com...................................DO IT!!!

[SierraWasp]

I think Arnold is the only one that's well known, even pictured doin "joints!"

[1035rep]

OK, (I guess) I just wanted to point out the FO didn't mention Mountjoy because he was not mentioned in the article. But then perhaps it was the author you were referring to.

 BTW, you should have know that since you once told me you could read my mind.  (and I believed you)
 

[zbigreddogz]

Arnold should win with around 58% I'm guessing.

We'll see who else that helps.

[SierraWasp]

And you should have devined that I was referring to both FairlyOpinionated and Schnur the Wilsonegger suck-up!!!

Remember, let's stay really "civil" now, right???