I completely understand your numerical assessment. I just totally disagree that the reaction will be what you and he think it is going to be. First, I think most gamblers are likely to simply work around it or ignore it. After all, this stuff has to be enforced. I doubt banks will immediately do that, because they don't know which sites are 'illegal' without some tipoff. Second, I doubt it will be enforceable, either, as the gamblers will simply transfer funds to international banks that WILL transfer to the gambling sites. So I don't think players will care, because the sites will continue as usual.
But that said--I doubt a substantial percentage of players vote to begin with, and those that will vote won't do so primarily on the basis of this ban. Frist gambled that was the case, and I think it was a good bet (pun intended).
You may be right. It just seems to me there was little to gain politically from this, and perhaps more to lose. Too late now anyway, the cow is out of the barn... LOL. Adios.