Posted on 10/19/2006 8:33:15 AM PDT by MNJohnnie
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1721172/posts?page=1
Recent Polls Outside The Historical Norm For Party ID.
A spate of recent polls paints a very gloomy electoral outlook for GOP candidates in next month's elections. One reason for that, possibly, is a set of samples in recent polls that do not mirror the historical norm for party ID.
A memo circulating among Republicans on the Hill, authored by GOP pollster David Winston, takes a look at the historical spread between Democrats and Republicans in House elections and polling over the last 14 years. According to Winston's analysis, there is a material discrepancy between the party identification listed by people in exit polls (people who actually voted) between 1992 and 2004, and those used over the last few weeks.
In most of the years between 1992 and 2004, Democrats held a slight advantage in party ID. Winston based his data on VNS/Media exit surveys, and concluded in 1992, Democrats held a 3 point advantage; in 1996, they held a 4 point advantage; in 1998, a 1 point advantage; and in 2000, a 3 point advantage. In two election years, 1994 and 2004, the percentages of people identifying themselves as Republicans and Democrats were identical, i.e., no advantage to either party. 2002 was the only year in which Republicans held an advantage over Democrats, with 40% identifying themselves to exit pollsters as Republicans and 38% identifying themselves as Democrats.
In short, between 1992 and 2004, only once did one party enjoy an advantage as large as 4 points over the other in party ID. But in recent polling samples used by eight different polling organizations (USA Today/Gallup, CBS/NYTimes, ABC/Washington Post, CNN/Opinion Research, Newsweek, AP/Ipsos, Pew, and Time), the Democratic advantage in the sample surveyed was never less than 5 points.
All these organizations conducted surveys in early October. According to Winston, the Democrats held the following party ID advantages in these early-October surveys: * USAToday/Gallup: 9 points. * CBS/NYT: 5 points * ABC/WP: 8 points * CNN: did not provide sample party ID details. * Newsweek: 11 points. * AP/Ipsos: 8 points. * Pew: 7 points. * Time: 8 points.
Party registrations shift over time, and many political operatives believe the country starts to gravitate away from a party that has been in power over an extended period of time. Republicans have controlled the House since 1995. Winston acknowledges that possibility in his memo, writing, "It is certainly not out of the realm of possibility that this year's election could fall outside of historical results, but any survey that does should acknowledge that
http://www.jasoncann.org/radio.htm
http://radio.findanisp.com/radio-shows-on-air.php
Get ready to rock.
here here
Rock N Rush!
Rush Time
Can I come back from Stream B now?
A Real Perspective On Polling
Two days before the 2002 mid-term elections, Zogby vs the result.
Mondale was cruising by 5 in Minnesota
Minnesota
Mondale 50
Colman 45
Too bad he lost by 3 points.
Mondale 47
Colman 50
Strickland was a lock by 9 in Colorado
Colorado
Strickland 53
Allard 44
Just two days and a 16 point swing later he lost by 5.
Strickland 46
Allard 51
Max Cleland, what can I say? Result in bold. Are you noticing a pattern here?
Georgia
Cleland 49 46
Chamblis 49 53
My, my .. the beat goes on.
Texas
Kirk 48 43.3
Coryn 49 55.3
Many are familiar with Thune, who didn't lose by the 5 Zogby projected. How many people stayed home on the margin? Your guess.
South Dakota
Johnson 52 49.6
Thune 47 49.5
Zogby had Lautenberg right in NJ, but under-polled Forester by 6 points.
New Jersey
Lautenburg 54 54
Forester 38 44
Carnahan by 1 but 2 more popped up for Talent and he won. The typos are via Kos.
Missouri
Carnhan 49 49
Tallent 48 50
And going back to Oct. 22, these pearls of wisdom from DailyKos via Charlie Cook:
Cook notes that Dems have a good shot at taking GOP seats in Arkansas, New Hampshire and Colorado, while the race in North Carolina has become unexpectedly competitive...Consider, perhaps the surest takeover bet is Arkansas, a GOP seat. And if the GOP loses New Hampshire, which I believe is likely, then forget it. There's no way the GOP can take the Senate.
Too bad Dems lost all of the above by 5 - 10 points
http://www.riehlworldview.com/carnivorous_conservative/2006/10/a_unique_perspe.html
Morning Johnnie.
Hello how are you?
Howdy.
Fine. You?
Locked, stocked, and ready to rock.
Okay...Johnnie..
We need Rush to get the story STRAIGHT about what Tony said, and what Pres. Bush said to Stephy re: Vietnam vs. Iraq!!
Talk about eating our own...I turned on Bill Bennett this morning and he was blasting Tony and wondering "yet again" if Bush knows what he is doing...by "COMPARING" Vietnam to Iraq..
And therefore GIVING the dems a new talking point to use until elections....
He was really MAD at Tony and Bush for being so stupid, and was practically saying that if the dems win, Bush and Tony and the Admin deserve it.!!!
GAG ME...
I though Bennett was a smart man....
In.
Snuggled up with my box of tissues and a ton of Sudafed, nasal spray and my doggy.
And of course Rush and Free Republic!
Thanks, MN.
Byrd won't go anywhere.
I heard.
I am at a lost to understand why the most ridiculous premise around was bought into by the pres and Tony.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.