Posted on 10/16/2006 6:48:19 AM PDT by DredTennis
October Surprise for the Investor Class
How will investors affect the midterm congressional elections on November 7? To even begin to tackle the issue beyond a sound bite, you first have to understand what the "investor class" is. Slightly more than half of all U.S. households own stock, either directly or through retirement accounts such as 401(k)'s and IRAs, according to the Investment Company Institute. In the early 1990s, that fraction was only about a third. And in the early 1980s, just a fifth of all households invested in stocks. During the 2004 presidential election, about 46 percent of investors, according to polling by Zogby International, identified themselves as members of the investor class. And this group voted for President Bush in a landslide over Sen. John Kerry, 61 percent to 39 percent ... So how about in 2006? Well, a Zogby poll taken in early June—just as the market started to rally—showed Bush with a 41 percent approval rating among investors. That's not so hot, but it was better than his 36 percent approval rating among voters overall. Since then the market has taken off. Investors opening up their financial statements this month will see a nice "October Surprise" in them. The S&P 500 gained nearly 5 percent in the third quarter and is up more than 11 percent since early June ...
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
We'll see how much of an impact that will have. I remember the conventional wisdom two years ago when the markets were struggling, that the third-quarter 401-k statements were going to drive voters to Kerry. That didn't happen, so it remains to be scene if the opposite scenario will help the GOP.
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sorry!
Hey dims! The all-out push to burst the mythical housing bubble fell on its face. The oil bubble burst--so maybe the stock market bubble bursting will make the third time a charm for y'all!
I'd imagine there will be a split between active and passive investors. Those who actively manage their own portfolios probably have a better grasp of what issues and political acts drive economies. Those who are passive 401(k)/503(b) mutual fund investors likely don't follow the news that closely and won't see correlations between governance and the health of an economy. i.e. the active investor is much less likely to be fooled into thinking that gas prices have recently been manipulated to be lower for the election.
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