CA: What you vote for not always what you get

Contra Costa Times ^ | 1/15/06 | Steve Geissinger and Josh Richman

[NormsRevenge]

SACRAMENTO - Experts are pointing stakeholders worried about California's governor race to differences between campaigning and elected office -- a contrast immortalized in "The Candidate," as the victor asked: "What do we do now?"

If elected, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides says his California would be kinder to working families, more generous to students and more welcoming to immigrants -- all while keeping books in the black.

But political analysts said in interviews that his vision is fiscally unrealistic.

Whittier College political science professor Richard Harvey said Angelides "has been in and around politics long enough so that he can probably make deals -- they all learn how to compromise."

With Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger leading handily in the polls, analysts said concerns about a re-elected governor, in particular, are growing among stakeholders on myriad issues.

"The basic, if largely ignored, question of the entire election is which Gov. Schwarzenegger Californians will see next January if he is re-elected," said Tim Hodson of the capital's Center for California Studies.

Will it be the populist who rode a recall into office, the conservative whose 2005 ballot measures failed, or the moderate compromiser running now?

Schwarzenegger spokeswoman Julie Soderlund said the governor is committed to the "dynamic centrism" he's learned voters want.

Even so, Hodson said, "Many Republicans are worried that a re-elected Gov. Schwarzenegger will shed any conservative trappings and become a Kennedy Democrat.

"Many Democrats and unionists are worried that the Schwarzenegger of 2006 is a campaign fiction who will revert to a conservative, more interested in implementing the Chamber of Commerce's agenda than being a moderate."

Jack Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College, said "given the likely fate of the national GOP in the midterm (elections), I don't think that Gov. Schwarzenegger will turn to the right."

"Schwarzenegger would apply what he learned in Hollywood -- when you have a hit, do a sequel," said Pitney. "If Republicans lose Congress, pundits will hold up his 2006 centrism as a model for other Republicans to follow."

Terry Christensen, a political science professor at San Jose State, agrees that "when Schwarzenegger is not running for re-election, we may see a governor more secure in his own political agenda -- which is more moderate than that of the party under whose banner he runs."

Angelides, meanwhile, is a self-described liberal who would embrace the idea that government should be wielded widely as a tool to better people's lives.

"California has not had a classic Democrat in a long time and he certainly fits that mold -- he's a very loyal player in the party," said Pepperdine University public-policy professor Michael Shires.

"Former Gov. Gray Davis was more moderate than Phil would be -- Gray saw the necessity to balance spending against revenues and was more realistic about the constraints on his revenue."

UC Davis political science professor Ed Costantini said Angelides would be "a policy wonk, well-informed" on educational, environmental and fiscal policy and unafraid to put tax increases -- the bane of campaign politics -- not only on the table but front and center to deal with the state's deficit.

But UC Berkeley public-policy professor John Ellwood said "there's no way he would get it (a tax increase) through the Legislature because of the Republicans -- they won't even raise taxes when there's a deficit."

Angelides would ask voters to approve the tax raise as a ballot measure, but "the chances of that happening are low," Ellwood said.

Some analysts said there's an interesting twist -- Schwarzenegger, if victorious, would continue morphing, less noticeably, as he postures for U.S. Senate in 2010 -- when he's termed out as governor -- or 2012.

"Schwarzenegger will want to extend his career, which means before long in his second term, he'll start positioning himself to run for U.S. Senate," said Doug Willis, a longtime former Associated Press Sacramento bureau chief.

"He can't openly do that immediately, but it would surely be part of his thinking from Day One of a second term," Willis said.

David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State, looked further out. He expects in 2010, the then-63-year-old Schwarzenegger will be "two years removed from a potential race to replace U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who ... will be 79 and I assume she'll give up the seat."

"What?" responded Soderlund. The Schwarzenegger spokeswoman said a re-elected governor would remain focused on his job, achieving more economic and other successes.

[NormsRevenge]

Enjoy the next round of spending hikes and debt, California. You earned it.

[ImpBill]

Hi NR. Not only in California but in the rest of the nation/world this scene has been played out time and time again.

[calcowgirl]

"Many Republicans are worried that a re-elected Gov. Schwarzenegger will shed any conservative trappings and become a Kennedy Democrat

I believe that chapter is complete already. It happened. Now the question is if he will continue his leftward descent into total moonbat liberalism.