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Here's what I said on Phsstpok's thread:

"The only hope is the trend, and I think the trend is our friend.

I say that because most of these observers agree that up through the end of September, things were looking up for the Republicans. The Foley scandal brought that to a screeching halt, and the democrats are now up.

The trend is, though, that the Foley scandal has run its fill. There is no more to spill, and now the Republicans can get back on message. Will they? Will they allow the DBM to invent something new to beat them with? Will they allow the DBM to bury the Reid land deal? Will we? Is this why Barone is glum, or is it because of these last two weeks?

Lets see what happens over the next three weeks. Everyone is looking backwards. What is ahead of us?"

So, to answer your question, yes, the Dems are up right now. If the election is held today (which is silly, of course, as it is not), they well might win. I honestly believe the DBM, encouraged by their success over the Foley flareup, are going to try again. I think they'll overplay their hand, as they always do, and the Republicans will maintain control.

Great points, I agree. Democrats will overplay their hand.

The fact is Democrats and media have been hammering President Bush for six years, nonstop. At some point it has to take a toll, although we have proved the left wrong for six years now. The unknown and critical component in our success is the independent, non aligned voter. These people for the most part realize the left is overplaying the Bush Lied scenario because what they see on TV shows a calm, deliberate mature president. Voters like that confidence and if Bush & Co were to come out swinging it might turn them off. It’s hard to argue with success, and so far the results have been good. The question is whether or not this will work one more time?

In the mean time, people like Kerry and Hillary are playing to their base in being more and more outrageous in their accusations against President Bush. The far-left supporters such as Daily Kos, MoveOn and Democrat Underground have made it pretty clear they will withdraw support unless these people get more radical in attacking President Bush and the Republicans.

Just watch Condi and Kerry today. Condi will be calm and deliberate while Kerry will be outrageous and confrontational. (He may also try to pull a Clinton if he thinks he can get away with it.)

Great catch AB.
Everyone is ignoring the most obvious and important fact about elections, news cycles.
Major news stories have been cycling recently at a 7-10 days cycle. First there way foley, then dingy harry and next week there will be something else.
The most important cycle will be the ten days immediately before the election.
Absent cycles, the smart voter will get back to issues. Anytime issues come up, the dems lose,we win.

If I have to hear one more supposed Conservative talk show host from Bennett to Ingraham to Hannity or Boortz whine about how many seats we are going to lose, I am going to start throwing things at my "radio" instead of the "t.v."