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The article is suggesting that the trends that have turned NY from having a big Republican following outside of NYC are being played out nationally as well.

Taxes are a big part of if. Spending drives taxes. Our federal government is also spending more money than ever before. Someone's going to have to pay for that spending. Since it's been deficit spending lately, that means I'm going to be paying for in ten or twenty years, but someone's got to pay. Plus, since you can't cut spending once every citizen has some stake in government spending, you're paying the inflated current cost of government, in addition to servicing the debt left from the deficit spending you had at the beginning. New York State may not have invented this model, but it happened hear earlier than on the national scene.

The second part of the equation is the social stuff. Do Republican's want people to decide how to live their life (like John Stuart Mill wrote) or do they want to force people to live according to a conservative belief structure? Texas banned gay sex. The Supreme Court over turned it. Where do Republicans stand. You can be conservative and say, "that's not me, I don't even think anyone should being doing it, but I'm not going to let the government into anyone's bedroom". Nationally, there's a split, and that's the kind of thing that's turned off some moderate Republicans in NY who are personally comfortable with gay rights, abortions, and other "liberal"issues. It also turns off "classical liberals" who don't want the government interfering in their private affairs. Those are the people who see bans on things(including smoking and trans-fat), or see the nonsense at the airports, background screenings when you open a bank account, and national security wiretaps on US citizens and say, "I don't want a government that can get that involved in my life".

Finally, people in a lot of Republican strongholds in New York have become soft. Their parents worked real hard to build a good life for them. They've know physical and financial security their whole life, and don't understand that those things have to be paid for with money, effort, or both. They think someone can promise them safety, security, and comfort for free. That's what the Democrats offer them, and they buy it. Does anyone not think that's happening nationally?

This is what happened to

I disagree. And here's why. NY is largely democratic these days because the Republicans are leaving not because of social demands or spending.

Are you actually saying that Democrats will spend less? Are you saying that Democrats are less intrusive?

Republicans leave because NY is hostile to business and is taxed as high as some European countries. The density of Democrats is not because of party converted Republicans but rather their migration to other places. NY is losing population and no one starts a business or moves one here.

You will live to see Florida, North Carolina, Virgina and perhaps Georgia surpass NY in population. 20 years from now New York will be a mid-sized democrat state with a declingin population and a sliding economic base.