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"In your #24 you think like an intelligence analyst. What you call "guessing" is an important factor when no high grade information is available."

Thanks for that knowledge. I'm not. I've had some military experience, but it was only for enlisted soldiers and not very related to the comments at all. The thinking behind the comments came from reading publicly available information, ongoing self-training for C++ development (logic) and some technical troubleshooting for repairs around the house (logic). Might people with hands-on technical experience be better candidates for doing intel analyses than those with only education in theory and history (and especially better than most journalists behind the commentaries we're seeing)? ...maybe prior service engineers who've built their own prototypes and read much history? I'm nowhere near being an engineer or engineering tech., BTW, and real software development (faster and more versatile without RADs) is only a trade (takes too much education time to be what is called a "profession").