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Tradesports: Republicans Losing House; Senate Certainty is Down (Money where mouth is alert!)
Tradesports.com ^ | 09 October 2006

Posted on 10/09/2006 8:17:03 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat

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To: AaronInCarolina
I think the Dem's and MSM always overplay their hand look what happened in the last week of 2000

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/graphs/congress00.gif
41 posted on 10/09/2006 8:59:04 PM PDT by underbyte
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To: art_rocks
Just like the experts said that Baltimore would win over Denver.

Even AFTER tonight's Denver win over Baltimore, there are still idiots with a "vote", like Michael Irvin, who placed Baltimore in the #5 slot of his top 5 AFC teams while Denver was no where to be found on his dumbass list.

42 posted on 10/09/2006 8:59:23 PM PDT by hole_n_one
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To: JasonC
Um, in other news, the Feds banned overseas transfers for betting purposes a week or so ago.

As far as I know the bill hasn't been signed yet. And it's not even clear that the bill would apply to tradesports, since it's not really a game of chance.

Online poker is collapsing.

Nah. PartyPoker preemptively stopped accepting US players, but that's widely believed to be an overreaction and most sites are still running normally.

Of course, it is not unrelated to this story that the GOP Congress apparently thinks that online poker is among the most dangerous threats to the nation.

43 posted on 10/09/2006 9:00:27 PM PDT by ThinkDifferent
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To: Recovering_Democrat

These polecat polls will be washed away by the 7 Nov. poll, the only poll that matters.


44 posted on 10/09/2006 9:01:40 PM PDT by F.J. Mitchell (Want to find a Mosque? Get your self a bomb sniffing dog.)
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To: tenthirteen

Just fyi, Intrade and tradesports are BOTH run by the same firm. Their emphasis is a little different between them, but both sides advise that any punter can participate on one but not both.


45 posted on 10/09/2006 9:02:03 PM PDT by SAJ (debunking myths about markets and prices on FR since 2001)
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To: There You Go Again
That data you pulled was from election day on which there was false data being disseminated by the Demos

I said that already.

.....the stock price simply incorporated "all best known information"....that is why stock fluctuates throughout the trading day...

Yes, I know, I said that too. And when the "best known" information is bad Polls trying to spur momentum for Democrats and Liberal news orgs telling people Foley will cause us to lose 50 seats (they hope), just like the regular market, people panic and react irrationally.

I really don't know why I am having to repeat this. Bad MSM Polls plus Overhype about the effect of Foley = Tradesports panic. No different when the lunatic in Iran starts mouthing off and oil prices climb for no good reason.

That makes these trading markets suspect at best. Absence manipulation, sure, maybe they are fairly accurate. But once Dems start tossing bad numbers into the mix and October Surprises they are worthless.

46 posted on 10/09/2006 9:15:39 PM PDT by Soul Seeker (Kobach: Amnesty is going from an illegal to a legal position, without imposing the original penalty.)
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To: Uncle Vlad

well its only 5 years spent so perhaps theres time. i still say that the US military just doesn't kill enough people...blowing up empty bldgs from a 1000 miles away impresses technogeeks but not the enemy


47 posted on 10/09/2006 10:00:03 PM PDT by wildcatf4f3 (level headed analyst here...armed to the teeth)
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To: Recovering_Democrat
Let's hope Chaney has Osoma's dead body on ice and thaws it out a day or two before the election.
48 posted on 10/09/2006 10:35:03 PM PDT by Herakles (Diversity is code word for anti-white racism)
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To: defenderSD
But this is all before Rove's October surprise. I think this is going to be an eventful month before it's over.

Rove's in the tank. He wants a Democrat House so he can get his "citizenship for illegals" amnesty plan passed.

49 posted on 10/09/2006 10:52:51 PM PDT by pawdoggie
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To: freespirited
If you look at the individual Senate races at Tradesports, then compile the results, you wind up with a prediction that the GOP will lose the Senate.

That would be assuming all the Senate races were independent. It would be possible for the odds of every individual race to be 60% against, and yet the odds of winning more than half of them to be 60% in favor. As a scenario, divide the races into five groups A-E and roll 1D8.

If the roll is 1, win races ABC.
If the roll is 2, win races BCD.
If the roll is 3, win races CDE.
If the roll is 4, win races ADE.
If the roll is 5, win races ABE.
If the roll is 6-8, lose them all.

Each group of races has only a 37.5% chance of victory. The overall chance of winning, however, is 62.5%.

50 posted on 10/09/2006 10:59:16 PM PDT by supercat (Sony delenda est.)
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To: ClearCase_guy
And all of the polls show that Republicans across the country are being punished because some Rep in Florida didn't have sex with an employee.

No according to the polls the REpublicans are being punished because the Republican leadership covered up Foleys behavior in order to maintain its majority. More than two thirds believe that. In addition, the Republican leadership has shown exactly NO leadership for at least four years. What a bunch of whimps. Where the hell is Newt when you need him.

51 posted on 10/09/2006 11:04:48 PM PDT by Dave S
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To: SAJ

Thanks for the update, I was not aware of that.


52 posted on 10/10/2006 11:37:04 AM PDT by tenthirteen
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