[chilepepper]

Because the cat is out of the bag - the US umbrella was not enough to keep NK from testing a nuclear device, a device which Japan is not supposed to have or desire. I think if the nut in Pyongyang has a bomb, Japan will want some insurance in case a weak Carter/Kerry/Clinton type president wins in 2008.

Of course, IMHO Japan probably *already has* nuclear bombs designed, fissile material squirreled away, and the production lines ready to build weapons on short notice.

What remains is for them to make this public to remove any advantage NK believes that it has over Japan in nuclear weapons...

[Zhang Fei]

Because the cat is out of the bag - the US umbrella was not enough to keep NK from testing a nuclear device, a device which Japan is not supposed to have or desire. I think if the nut in Pyongyang has a bomb, Japan will want some insurance in case a weak Carter/Kerry/Clinton type president wins in 2008.

If Japan splits off from the nuclear and conventional umbrella provided by Uncle Sam, China will have achieved its objective in getting Kim to up the ante - to confront Japan alone, instead of Japan and Uncle Sam. China also gets to cut Japan off from supporting the US over a Taiwan flare-up. The abrogation of the US-Japan mutual defense pact would also mean the withdrawal of US troops from Japan, which would increase the American response time if China invades Taiwan.

I really can't see how a nuclear Japan that is no longer formally allied with the US is bad for China. Does anyone think Japan would use nukes over the disputed Senkaku Islands? The fact is that a nuclear Japan is a Japan that faces China alone - without an American tripwire force to oblige a US president to come to Japan's rescue either in territorial disputes or disputes over sea lanes.