Why??? I think it is very true. Most voters are finishing up their summer fun before the weather changes and it time to go back to school.
Do voters not watch TV while they're "finishing up their summer fun"? Sure, voters may not focus too much on a commercial, but they might take away soundbites; like the McCaskill commercial that must have aired one hundred times before Talent's people figured out they had opponent in the race. The commercial talked about how much money Talent had received (in campaign contributions) from the oil companies (at a time when gas was still upwards of $3.00 a gallon). Ads like that, when not challenged by the incumbent, can amount to the death of a thousand cuts. By the way, a lot of these commercials were shown during "Oprah" time, to reach a very specific target audience.