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Re #15

Ordinary Chinese and rank and file PLA troops are not crazy about N. Korea for some time.

A few years ago, Chicom had a contingency plan in case everything goes south.

It could include annexation of N. Korea as a whole or its part.

What do you think that U.S. and China are haggling about behind closed doors? The price for China to let Kim Jong-il regime go down.

The article is a little confusing. I think all it is saying is that the CHinese are cultivating a disrespect for NK among their troops in anticipation of annexing parts of of NK after Kim leaves power.

If the Chinese have thought this through, they won't do it. There is no way the ROK's are going to stand for a Chinese invasion, let alone an annexation of North Korea. Koreans are nationalistic and xenophobic to a fault. If China moves in, I would expect the ROK's to coordinate a move north with their North Korean counterparts. China would replace Japan as a hate figure in Korean eyes. And both Japan and the US would stand to win major brownie points with South Korea by supporting - with men and equipment - a South Korean push north. At long last, the South Koreans will finally figure out who their friends really are. I can't really see how a Chinese push south is feasible.

At the same time, it's also unnecessary. China provides the majority of North Korea's food and fuel for free. If China turned off the spigot, it could both shut down North Korea's nuclear program and turf out Kim Jong Il (via a generals' revolt).

A Chinese invasion is unlikely to succeed and is likely to be unnecessary to get regime change. I think we have to face the facts - what China is doing here is mounting a misleading propaganda effort to convince the West that Kim Jong Il isn't really China's handpuppet despite significant evidence that China owns Kim. I think China believes that the chances of a nuclear northeast Asia are remote even if North Korea tests a nuke. I think they're right. My feeling is that Uncle Sam will successfully restrain its allies from adopting nukes, on pain of excommunication from existing mutual defense pacts. Bottom line - China can't lose.

Note that the stuff about Chinese fears of fallout is a bunch of hyped-up BS. Chernobyl led to 47 immediate deaths and 4,000 delayed cancer deaths. Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the two Japanese cities nuked in 1945, today have triple and double the populations they had before the bombing.