I just got finished reading this and part of the thread and a few others that claim the Pubbies have lost points and the Dims are up (e.g., might as well stay home Pubbies, the Dims are taking over and Pelosi or Murtha will be the next Speaker). I sure hope that this comes back to bite the bums in the bum.
I found this post quite interesting and think you might, too (it was in the US Democrats Lead After Sex Scandal thread (which, btw is contrary to what Rasmussen found)
Generic Congressional Polls 2004 election cycle:
Battleground 6/20-23: 41 (GOP) - 49 (DUm) - 11 (unsure) +8 DUm
AP/Ipsos 6/17-19: 40 (GOP) - 47 (DUm) - 10 (neither) - 3 (not sure) +7 DUm
CNN/USA/Gallup 7/30 - 8/1: 44 (GOP) - 49 (DUm) - 7 (undecided) +5 DUm
NBC/WSJ 9/17-19: 42 (GOP) - 46 (DUm) - 12 (undecided) +4 DUm
CBS/NYT 7/11-15: 37 (GOP) - 46 (DUm) - 8 (depends) - 9 (don't know) +9 DUm
Time 6/2-4: 37 (GOP) - 49 (DUm) - 4 (other) - 11 (not sure) +12 DUm
Newsweek 7/29-30: 41 (GOP) - 51 (DUm) - 8 (undecided) +10 DUm
LAT 6/5-6/8: 35 (GOP) - 54 (DUm) - 1 (Ind) - 3 (neither) - 7 (unsure) +19 DUm
Democracy Corps 8/2-5: 41 (GOP) - 51 (DUm) - 2 (other) - 6 (not sure) +10 DUm
2004 General Election Results: House +3 GOP / Senate +4 GOP
22 posted on 10/09/2006 6:47:32 PM PDT by 1035rep
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1716573/posts
I also found one earlier during lunch (can't find it right now) that said one of the House incumbents in OR could be in trouble and some of the posts indicate that there are House seats that are flying under the radar - -hope that many of these will be the "November Surprise" ;-)
Also, I suspect it's a long shot, but a 'straw poll' has Harris up in FL - - may be too good to be true, especially since it was at a 'Politics in the Park' function - but it would sure be great if it happened!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1716433/posts
This is the problem with Junk Media polls, you have NO idea of their Democrat-Republican mix. IF you polled 45% D 35% R you get one result, if you poll 45-45% you get a completely different one.
Until the Polling firms do a poll that is 48%-48% this all is just noise. EVEN Gallup admitted Republicans were solid in their poll. So it all boils down to turn out. THIS "It all over but the crying" story line is designed to do ONE thing, keep Republicans at home Nov 7th. It nonsense.
Then there is one other thing. OUR October Surprises have not yet been unleashed. Operation Rope a Dem is up and running. These polls are just the usual Democrat Noise Machine attempts to stifle Republican turn out. In 1980 the polls said it was too close to call going into election day.
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Here are the results:
Ronald Wilson REAGAN
Party: REPUBLICAN
Home State:
PR: CA; VP: TX
Electoral Votes: 489
Pop. Vote: 43,898,770 (50.8%)
James Earl Carter Jr
Party: DEMOCRATIC
Home State:
PR: GA; VP: MN
Electoral Votes: 49
Pop. Vote: 35,480,948 (41.0%)
Pollsters frequently get it WRONG.
Generic polls are some of the worst for predictions. The media and Democrats have spent six years hammering Bush and the GOP. Voters who don't pay much attention or voters who have not really stopped to evaluate person R versus person D are different than generic nobody R or D.
These may not be a prediction for an election as much as how effective their Bush bashing has been on one area or another.
Democrats I know here are still convinced both Gore and Kerry won their elections because they bought the propaganda of these kinds of polls, along with the media polls that were all showing them winning. As Johnnie was pointing out, these polls seem to be designed to depress one sides get out the vote efforts. I would also add they are trying to create momentum for their side, hoping there are a lot of "me too" voters who might jump on their band wagon.