More Wild Assumptions in the Latest AP/Ipsos Poll?
The latest AP/Ipsos poll shows that George Bush's approval rating is 38% among registered voters, and 39% among likely voters. (Poll results here.) (Pdf file)
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/client/act_dsp_pdf.cfm?name=mr061005-2toplinerevised.pdf&id=3210
The poll also shows the Democrats enjoying a 16-point lead in the generic congressional ballot among registered voters (54%-38%), and a 10-point lead among likely voters (51%-41%).
Asked if they would rather see the Dems or Repubs control Congress -- regardless of their vote -- registered respondents preferred the Dems by 21-points (55%-34%), with likely voters preferring the Dems by 17 points (53%-36%).
This does not appear to be good news for the Republicans.
However, a closer look at the composition of the poll's respondents reveals that when asked which party they leaned toward, the respondents broke down 54%-38% in favor of the Dems among registered voters, and 51%-41% among likely voters.
In other words, the composition of the poll's respondents -- in both registered and likely voters -- matches exactly the results of the generic congressional ballot.
For historical comparison, in the 37 presidential elections since 1860, only three Democratic Party presidential candidates have won a majority of the vote with a margin of 10% or more: FDR in 1932 and 1936; and LBJ in 1964.
3 out of 37.
Yet the AP/Ipsos poll assumes such a breakdown of the electorate exists today.
That's interesting, non?
http://www.theneweditor.com/index.php?/archives/4345-More-Wild-Assumptions-in-the-Latest-APIpsos-Poll.html
Oh Ali. You know how I get crazy when you speak French!!!!!!
He knows the polls are weighted on the heavy side for the dems.
AP polls ever favor conservatives? (almost pravda)
"However, a closer look at the composition of the poll's respondents reveals that when asked which party they leaned toward, the respondents broke down 54%-38% in favor of the Dems among registered voters, and 51%-41% among likely voters. "
In other words, many folks who are registered dems do not vote.
That's a GREAT post.