Probably fewer than that. You figure that by 2008 you'll have the 10 Nimitz class plus the Enterprise. At any one time you have 2 undergoing SLEP/refueling so you'll only have 9 available at any one time.
A big mistake IMHO, to reduce any further. I'd rather see 14-16. With China's buildup, and the other threats we face, we should maintain as close to an unassailable edge as possible.
...and with all the hundreds of billions waisted on PC, liberal, social give aways, both domestic and foreign, we have more than enough money if we had the will.