Five points on Brazil's first round
Brazil's presidential election is going to a second round. First some results.
Lula da Silva: 48.61%
Alckmin: 41.64%
Helena: 6.85%
Blank or Null votes: 8.42%
1. More than corruption. It's easy for the global media to pick up one campaign theme and run with it, but there were many domestic political and economic issues at play. Crime is a major issue that was barely discussed in the media (both candidates had their faults). Brazil's economy is growing, but nowhere near the pace it needs to. The Real has gained vis-a-vis the dollar, helping Brazil's economy overall but hurting some key sectors that probably cost Lula votes. One side accuses Lula of not moving fast enough on social programs (land redistribution, Bolsa Familia); the other side says he has failed to manage economic restructuring (pension reform, debt restructuring). There were plenty of issues that cost Lula votes in the first round.
2. Ok, yes, corruption too. The scandals were a continuous negative thread hanging over the Lula campaign. When voters are told day after day that the president's party is corrupt, it will hurt approval ratings.
3. The undecideds broke for Alckmin. The real shock of this election was that nearly all the undecided voters broke for Alckmin. He was regularly polling around 30% before the election and the number of undecided voters ranged from 10-15%. The movement of the undecideds to the opposition camp was probably caused by the most recent corruption scandal, but it should be seen as a major victory for Alckmin.
4. Alckmin with momentum. In one strong second place showing, Alckmin has changed his image from lackluster challenger to potential giant slayer. He has a long way to go, but there should be no doubt that he has the momentum.
5. Lula is still the favorite. In spite of showing poorly in the first round, President Lula da Silva is still the favorite in the second round. His campaign's first task will be doing something to shake up the race and disrupt Alckmin's momentum. Their second task should focus on getting 55-60% of the vote in the next round so that Lula can start his second term strongly.
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Let the women argue. Men can stand around and place bets and have a good time watching them do what comes naturally between women:):) And laugh the war off!