[The South Texan]

If Chavez were to lose the election, he'd probably get Jimmy Carter to fly down to Caracas and have him certify the election as a fraud so he could retain power. How far from the truth is that possiblity?

[raftguide]

Unfortunately, elections in third world countries are won by who counts them. By this time Chavez has gained control of the counters. There is no way for anyone to win in Venezuela other than he. So it will take a revolution. However, I'm sure he's doing all he can to disarm the populace. Venezuela, its sorry to see you go, but you acted too late!

[StJacques]

"If Chavez were to lose the election, he'd probably get Jimmy Carter to fly down to Caracas and have him certify the election as a fraud so he could retain power. How far from the truth is that possiblity?"

As far as the probability of Chavez losing to Rosales, I estimate Rosales has about a 40% chance of winning right now, which is up from where I rated that probability just a couple of weeks back. Rosales is a rising star right now, but I see Chavez as pretty much able to "fix" the election right now. And I don't think even Jimmah Carter would try to step in and overturn a Chavez defeat after the way Chavez has been acting lately.

[Arizona Carolyn]

Not far at all. They make the voting machines -- the same one's we have that don't use a paper trail -- and can program them so no one knows what the data they turn out will be but the programer. I've heard more than one supposition Chavez lost the recall and Carter helped certify he'd won.