Everybody will know that a vote for Foley is a vote for Jeb Bush, and it will be an easy GOP hold. Moving right along, it DOES depend who the replacement candidate is and it needs to be someone with instant cred, and there is the little problem that there is Jupiter Island up to Ft. Pierce and some Palm Beach burbs on one side, and Port Charlotte on the other. The other thingy is just how much of a cat's meow the Dem is. If it is someone with the looks of Jerry Nadler, the termperment of Congressman Moran, and the ethics of Congressman Jefferson, it may not be an easy bag for them.
I suppose we'll see, but I'm thinking this is a weak Lean R seat now, possibly a Toss Up. We aren't talking about some ultra-GOP district. The FL-16 is less GOP than FL-13 to begin with.
PS. It's unclear what exactly you mean about a vote for Foley being a vote for Jeb Bush. I'm sure you know perfectly well that Jeb cannot appoint a replacement. Do you mean to say that a vote for Foley would be a vote for a special election? It would, if Foley actually refused to take his seat. I'm sure it'll be pointed out that if Foley wins his current resignation is moot.
But, we are getting ahead of ourselves I'm thinking. Are we sure to begin with that Foley's name remains on the ballot?