Mahoney is half owner of a business that has been fined for security law violations, and has some failed business issues. Negron has a million bucks left from his failed AG race that he can't use, but may be able to raise money from his donor list in a hurry. He will certainly need to. This one is a follow the money watch. If we don't see a lot of GOP money in a hurry, then yes, this seat is a write-off. I also did not find Negron a particuarly arresting personality when I saw him interviewed on the Palm Beach Post site. I would put the seat in the top half of your tossups at present, maybe around number 12 or so.
We need a Pryce poll. It has been awhile. Are the Dems funding independent ads?
I have the Foley seat at #9 on the cusp between Toss Up and Lean Dem, and I'm very content with that for the time-being. I think this'll be a much tougher hold than it appears you think. It's only a 54% Bush district and that's just really not much cushion for the GOP to work with this year. In the final outcome, I'll be fairly surprised if a marginal open seat with a sex offender on the ballot is a GOP hold.