A war against Intelligence

San Fran Chonicle ^ | 09/27/2006 | Robert Scheer

[LM_Guy]

YOU WOULD think that a consensus report from all 16 U.S. intelligence services concluding that he has blown the "war on terror" would be a really big deal to the president. But that assumes that George W. Bush values intelligence.

Clearly, he does not. So the news that a 2006 National Intelligence Estimate concludes the threat of terror against the United States has increased since 9/11, largely thanks to his irrational invasion of Iraq, has not disturbed Bush's branded "what, me worry'' countenance.

Instead, predictably, the administration's response to the leaked conclusions of the shared assessments of both civilian and military intelligence agencies was the same old historically ignorant claptrap that leaves U.S. policies completely out of the equation.

"Their hatred for freedom and liberty did not develop overnight," said White House spokesman Peter Watkins. "Those seeds were planted decades ago."

What seeds are those? It was "decades ago" that the CIA encouraged Muslim fanatics worldwide to go to Afghanistan to fight a holy war against a secular regime backed by the Russians. The end result of that engagement was -- after the Russian troop withdrawal and the consequent U.S. attention deficit -- a devolution into civil war, warlordism, and, eventually, the takeover of the country by Osama bin Laden's friends, the religiously extreme and oppressive Taliban. Seem familiar?

It should: The same deadly process has been taking place under Bush's watch in Iraq since our idiotic 2003 invasion.

If the Bush administration were serious about protecting us from terrorist attacks, it would end the ineffectual "war on terror" model and instead treat terrorism as a pathology that needs to be clinically and relentlessly excised. If terror groups such as al Qaeda are a cancer in the world's body politic, as the intelligence estimate suggests, then the goal should be....

[LM_Guy]

More from the LEFT COAST !!

[Bringbackthedraft]

You can say that again. I'm here visiting in SF, even my former conservative friends have been changed. Its still peace and love here.

[gunnedah]

Truth be known, Bin Laden is probably the "Ghost" writer of this article.

[weegee]

"a 2006 National Intelligence Estimate concludes the threat of terror against the United States has increased since 9/11"

The anthrax attack was the only successful attack of note against the US since 9-11 (and happened within days of the first event).

While there have been further attempts, they have been thwarted.

This war is NOT blown. The Democrats' chances at the ballot box in a fair election HAVE BEEN BLOWN.

[BelegStrongbow]

Of course, if a single allegation in this article were true, then the President would be responding. But, as the whole thing is built on a single sentence which is not borne out by the rest of the report, there's only reason for continuing to pound the enemy.

Schneer must want to be part of that enemy. What I want to see is a few arrests for treason among the 'press corps'.

[Pete]

Clearly, he does not. So the news that a 2006 National Intelligence Estimate concludes the threat of terror against the United States has increased since 9/11, largely thanks to his irrational invasion of Iraq, has not disturbed Bush's branded "what, me worry'' countenance.

I don't know what report this guy was reading but it wasn't the one released yesterday.

[MNJohnnie]

Guess this moron did not bother to actually read the report before writing his coloumn. He got everything WRONG

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http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1708787/posts


Declassified Key Judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate .Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States. dated April 2006

Key Judgments

United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that al-Qa’ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization. We also assess that the global jihadist movement—which includes al- Qa’ida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells—is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.

• Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.

• If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.

• Greater pluralism and more responsive political systems in Muslim majority nations would alleviate some of the grievances jihadists exploit. Over time, such progress, together with sustained, multifaceted programs targeting the vulnerabilities of the jihadist movement and continued pressure on al-Qa’ida, could erode support for the jihadists. We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy, and is becoming more diffuse. New jihadist networks and cells, with anti- American agendas, are increasingly likely to emerge. The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.

• We assess that the operational threat from self-radicalized cells will grow in importance to US counterterrorism efforts, particularly abroad but also in the Homeland.

• The jihadists regard Europe as an important venue for attacking Western interests. Extremist networks inside the extensive Muslim diasporas in Europe facilitate recruitment and staging for urban attacks, as illustrated by the 2004 Madrid and 2005 London bombings.

We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.

• The Iraq conflict has become the .cause celebre. for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight. We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this Estimate.

• Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement: (1) Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness; (2) the Iraq .jihad;. (3) the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and (4) pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims.all of which jihadists exploit. Concomitant vulnerabilities in the jihadist movement have emerged that, if fully exposed and exploited, could begin to slow the spread of the movement. They include dependence on the continuation of Muslim-related conflicts, the limited appeal of the jihadists. radical ideology, the emergence of respected voices of moderation, and criticism of the violent tactics employed against mostly Muslim citizens. •

The jihadists. greatest vulnerability is that their ultimate political solution.an ultra-conservative interpretation of shari.a-based governance spanning the Muslim world.is unpopular with the vast majority of Muslims. Exposing the religious and political straitjacket that is implied by the jihadists. propaganda would help to divide them from the audiences they seek to persuade.

• Recent condemnations of violence and extremist religious interpretations by a few notable Muslim clerics signal a trend that could facilitate the growth of a constructive alternative to jihadist ideology: peaceful political activism. This also could lead to the consistent and dynamic participation of broader Muslim communities in rejecting violence, reducing the ability of radicals to capitalize on passive community support. In this way, the Muslim mainstream emerges as the most powerful weapon in the war on terror.

• Countering the spread of the jihadist movement will require coordinated multilateral efforts that go well beyond operations to capture or kill terrorist leaders. If democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years, political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and groups willing to use the political process to achieve their local objectives. Nonetheless, attendant reforms and potentially destabilizing transitions will create new opportunities for jihadists to exploit.

Al-Qa’ida, now merged with Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi’s network, is exploiting the situation in Iraq to attract new recruits and donors and to maintain its leadership role.

• The loss of key leaders, particularly Usama Bin Ladin, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and al-Zarqawi, in rapid succession, probably would cause the group to fracture into smaller groups. Although like-minded individuals would endeavor to carry on the mission, the loss of these key leaders would exacerbate strains and disagreements. We assess that the resulting splinter groups would, at least for a time, pose a less serious threat to US interests than does al-Qa.ida.

• Should al-Zarqawi continue to evade capture and scale back attacks against Muslims, we assess he could broaden his popular appeal and present a global threat.

• The increased role of Iraqis in managing the operations of al-Qa.ida in Iraq might lead veteran foreign jihadists to focus their efforts on external operations. Other affiliated Sunni extremist organizations, such as Jemaah Islamiya, Ansar al- Sunnah, and several North African groups, unless countered, are likely to expand their reach and become more capable of multiple and/or mass-casualty attacks outside their traditional areas of operation.

• We assess that such groups pose less of a danger to the Homeland than does al- Qa.ida but will pose varying degrees of threat to our allies and to US interests abroad. The focus of their attacks is likely to ebb and flow between local regime targets and regional or global ones. We judge that most jihadist groups.both well-known and newly formed.will use improvised explosive devices and suicide attacks focused primarily on soft targets to implement their asymmetric warfare strategy, and that they will attempt to conduct sustained terrorist attacks in urban environments. Fighters with experience in Iraq are a potential source of leadership for jihadists pursuing these tactics.

• CBRN capabilities will continue to be sought by jihadist groups. While Iran, and to a lesser extent Syria, remain the most active state sponsors of terrorism, many other states will be unable to prevent territory or resources from being exploited by terrorists.

Anti-US and anti-globalization sentiment is on the rise and fueling other radical ideologies. This could prompt some leftist, nationalist, or separatist groups to adopt terrorist methods to attack US interests. The radicalization process is occurring more quickly, more widely, and more anonymously in the Internet age, raising the likelihood of surprise attacks by unknown groups whose members and supporters may be difficult to pinpoint.

• We judge that groups of all stripes will increasingly use the Internet to communicate

[weegee]

Start with those who are embedding themselves with Al Qaida (and that is happening).

[tx_eggman]

BARF alert for crap sakes, BARF alert

[RoadTest]

Was this article written by Dave Barry? Most of his articles are funnier, but this one does O.K., too.

[camle]

you can let the hornets continue to build thier nests nad to grown and to threaten you. Sooner or later their stings will cause you to knock the nest down.

it is no surprise that the hornets will become more active when you do so, so should you continue to let them get stronger?

[<1/1,000,000th%]

Barf alert?

[LIConFem]

These must be the latest Lib/Dem talking points. I heard the same rant yesterday, in a taxi on my way home from work.

[soxfan]

Merely stating that the Iraq War fueled terrorism, and using that as a basis for decision-making about our Nation's future course of action, would be as ridiculous as someone declaring in May 1945 that our World War II Naval campaign in the Pacific against the Japanese was a failure, in and of itself, because it fueled the recruitment and training of thousands of young Japanese suicide bombers. As we got closer to the Japanese homeland, and annihilated their remaining carriers and attrited their trained pilots, it is certainly true, the Japanese became much more desperate, and devastating, with respect to casualties they inflicted upon Naval personnel and ships. But one would hardly have plucked that out of any additional context to make policy decisions - at least, we can all be thankful they didn't.

[dirtboy]

YOU WOULD think that a consensus report from all 16 U.S. intelligence services concluding that he has blown the "war on terror" would be a really big deal to the president.

YOU WOULD think that liberal wingnuts would not be stupid enough to base their lies on not revealing the entire truth when the entire truth has already been revealed. But, then again, that is why they keep losing elections - they have been unable to counter the rise of the right-wing media, because they cannot lie by omission the way they are used to.

[facedown]

Bob Scheer is a known quantity.

[Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek]

"But that assumes that George W. Bush values intelligence.

Clearly, he does not."

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
No, it assumes that Bush read the whole report, not just the carefully harvested details that, in isolation, could be leaked and spun as 'proving' the point this fellow wants to make.

I wonder what this guy thinks of Clinton, who notoriously refused to meet with his CIA director throughout his tenure in Motel 1600. Now THERE was someone who didn't care about intelligence (since he was always making up the truth as he went along anyway, so why ask someone else). The difference between sociopaths and solipsists is sometimes hard to detect.

[MNJohnnie]

E-mail: rscheer@truthdig.com.

Email address for this moron. Let him know how stupid he is in posting this column without even bothering to actually READ what he supposedly was writing about.

[richardtavor]

"Clearly, he does not. So the news that a 2006 National Intelligence Estimate concludes the threat of terror against the United States has increased since 9/11, largely thanks to his irrational invasion of Iraq, has not disturbed Bush's branded "what, me worry'' countenance."

Casaulties in WWII were highest just before Germany surrendered, and just before Japan surrendered. These fools have no understanding of history or War. As most Democrats, they want to make the War on Terror a legal issue....

[Zack Nguyen]

The end result of that engagement was -- after the Russian troop withdrawal and the consequent U.S. attention deficit -- a devolution into civil war, warlordism, and, eventually, the takeover of the country by Osama bin Laden's friends, the religiously extreme and oppressive Taliban.

I would suggest that, had we stayed in Afghanistan after the USSR pulled out and helped set up a government, leftists like Mr. Scheer would have been wailing that we are "imperialists running all over the world telling developing countries what to do" or something to that effect. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.